Offseason spending spree

I and all of the other Braves fans are saying "see you next year" in mid August for the first time since I was pushing my toy trucks around the basement after I got home from First grade (I think). Still there will be a lot to watch for between now and spring training. If you search through the Braves blogs you'll see writers looking forward to seeing which prospects perform well in the September call-ups, how our DLed relievers are doing, which players have Dr. James Andrews on their speed dial.

OK, so nobody cares about that. Let's not kid ourselves and just get out there in the open what we are all thinking about. The Braves have close to half of their payroll to spend on new arms and bats this winter.

Let's look at some of the key players looking for new contracts:
**Disclaimer: It's only mid-August, and a lot can happen to change the status of some of these players. Some guys not listed have a player, club, or mutual option for '09. The following list is a "as of right now" kind of scenario...

Key Bats (Outfield):
Manny Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Pat Burrell

Two of these guys (Burrell and Dunn) are similar in a lot of ways. They are very inconsistent. They'll have 1 great week, 1 terrible week, and 1 mediocre week.

Manny might be out of our price range. Manny is currently at 20mil/year and the way he is swinging the bat right now in LA doesn't suggest a discount due to his age. Besides, it's been since John Rocker since we've had a personality like his in Atl. I don't think Manny would fit very well in Atlanta and I don't think Manny would like playing in Atlanta anyways.

Key Arms:
A.J. Burnett (might opt out)
Ryan Dempster
Ben Sheets
C.C. Sabathia

Well, what would you do? Guys like Burnett and Sheets have had injury problems. The obvious choice is Sabathia, but he has to make you a little nervous with all of those innings he has logged at his age.

Realistically, I don't see Sabathia happening. I could be wrong, but it is important to note that the Yankees will also be shopping for a starter, and you know they are going to go for the best available - C.C. I don't think it matters that the Braves have half their payroll to spend, the Yankees will outbid anybody when they are desperate enough.

Sheets has to make you nervous also, it's been 4 years since he's thrown 200 innings. I know arm injuries aren't contagious, but being surrounded by Braves pitchers with new ligaments probably won't help him. Still, this is the best chance I see the Braves having of improving their staff via free agency, as the pitching market is pretty thick this year. And I think Braves fans are getting impatient of waiting on Jo-Jo Reyes to prove himself and as injury prone as Hampton is, at least Sheets won't make me laugh like Mike Hampton does. Anyways, I say all this to say, you're not going to improve your club if you don't take chances. Here's what I'd do...


Sign Adam Dunn - 5 yr/85 mil (17 mil/year)
He made 13 mil in 2008. I figure Dunn will probably join the 17-18 per year club of outfielders joining A. Soriano, V. Wells, A. Jones and others soon to join. It seems kind of steep, especially when comparing him to Soriano. He has always struggled with batting average but who cares. We need his on base percentage almost as badly as we need his 40 homers. I'd say anything cheaper than 17 mil/year is a steal if acquiring him as a free agent. If a lot of teams are interested, look for his price to rise.

Sign Ben Sheets 4 years/60mil (15mil/year) with opportunities to make up to $3 million/year more through innings pitched, cy young votings, etc.
Sheets is a bit tougher to predict his price tag. My prediction is most likely way off. Names on his "most similar to" list include A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Brad Penny also makes an appearance in the age listing. It's unrealistic to expect him to make every start, but when he's on the hill he's producing results. He made 11 million this year and it's been one of his better years in health and performance combined. I think what makes it especially tough to predict his payroll is that (to my knowledge) an injury prone pitcher of Sheets' quality hasn't received a new contract lately. Santana and Zito didn't have an injury history when they were signed (although some say claim they predicted Zito's velocity to drop). Right now, Peavy is at 17 million/year, so that has to be a standard somewhere to start at. Even with his injury history, he's still going to be expensive, as the price of pitching is always rising. It would be a mistake to not have any performance/durability incentives in Sheets' contract.

Sign Ryan Dempster: 3 years/36 million (12 million/year)
I realize that Ryan Dempster's 2008 campaign is most likely a fluke. He's never put up numbers this good before. He's been a reliever the past several years, so that probably does make this a pretty special case. But I really doubt we'll be able to afford two top of the rotation starters and an outfield powerbat. If we get a leftfield (or maybe rightfield, but doubt it) bat, then we'll probably only be able to purchase 1 ace and possibly a second, but most likely a third starter, bringing us to Dempster.

True, he's not incredible. However, his ERA+ has been 96 or higher each of the past 5 seasons, 112 or higher in 3 of those 5 seasons. After what Braves fans have experienced this year, I think we'd be pretty satisfied for anybody who throws about 180 league average innings. I guess it all just hinges on if the Cubs resign him or not. With a rotation Already consisting of Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and Marquis you figure the competition will be tough for Dempster, who until this year was a reliever since 2004.

Some of you readers may disagree, but I'm gonna guess that 12 mil/year is a fair market value for Dempster. It may seem a little on the low side if he's a starter, and if you solely look at 2008, it is low. But remember his career ERA is 4.60. Much more money than that and he's getting elite pitcher money, and Dempster is not among the Elite.

Well, that's 44 million per year on those guys. It has been calculated that about 50 million will be available for spending, but a lot of that depends on if Glavine retires after seeing his MRI. I'm a bit skeptical if it's really that much, but if that number is accurate, we can use the remaining 6 million to plug up holes in the bench or bullpen.

I'd go to war with that Rotation...
Sheets
Dempster
Jurrjens
Campillo
Reyes/Morton/Whoever????

As far as the lineup...
Escobar
Kotchman
Chipper
Dunn
McCann
Johnson
Frenchy
Whatever minor leaguer plays CF for us next year
Pitcher

The ineup might could use a bit of tweaking still, but we can see clearly that the addition of Dunn is quite an improvement alone.

OK, so let me have it. Tell me how wrong I am. Do you disagree with my signings? Are my contracts too low or too high paying? I admit, I'm not an agent nor am I a GM. What do you think?