I'm really enjoying Sunday part of the 2008 football season. As for the Saturday part, I'm practically ready for the season to end.
The Cowboys are playing well, meanwhile the University of Tennessee is playing like a bunch of "volunteers" (Hey Coach! Can I try football? Let me play! let me play!)
That's another post, though. Let's get to Dallas' game against the Pack attack at Lambeau.
Offense:
Back in his home state, Tony Romo began the game with a bit of a struggle, throwing a pick. Although I have no numbers to back this statement up, I feel like Tony Romo might be amongst the best in the league at recovering from a mistake. He did it last week after fumbling in the end zone against the Eagles. He did it yesterday after throwing a pick, he begins the next drive ready to prove that that wasn't his best.
Romo ends up throwing for 260 yards, going 17 for 30. With 1 TD and 1 INT. Not really outstanding numbers, but Romo seemed to be able to connect when it mattered most (3rd down conversions).
The reception king of the game, as usual, is Jason Witten with 7 catches. Miles Austin had only 2 receptions but went a total of 112 yards. The Packers had T.O. doubled all night, sticking Woodson on him from the first snap to the last. It's a choice defenses have to make. You have to pick 2 of the 3: Double T.O., Double Witten, or have a good pass rush. Yesterday the Pack attack sacrificed rushing the QB. Green Bay dropped their safeties back and Dallas took what the Packers' secondary gave them. It wasn't until late in the game when we started going over the top(a la Miles Austin), but that was when the Packers began changing their schemes a little bit because of the damage MB3 had done.
Speaking of Marion the Barbarian, he rushed 28 times for 146 yards and a TD. Also, Marion lost the first fumble of his career. Felix Jones wasn't bad on the ground either, going 6 for 76 yards and a TD, giving him a TD in each of his first 3 games.
Another first of this game, was Romo's very first intentional grounding penalty, twice! Romo had never been flagged for that in his career, until yesterday. Other than that, penalties weren't horrible. This was the first game I can remember in a long time when our opponent had more penalty yardage than we did (68 to our 54).
Defense:
This was a very good defensive game for us. The entire game, the Pack attack had two devestating passing plays (one to Jennings, one to Driver). One was a mental mistake from Adam Jones (I still don't know if I'm allowed to call him Pacman?) and another was a missed tackle from A. Henry. Other than that our defense wasn't giving much of anything. The longest run we gave up was 9 yards. Grant was held to 54 yards on 13 attempts. Jennings did catch 8 passes for 115 yards, but other than the already mentioned 26 yarder, it was just a few year and a few there.
We got to the quarterback 5 times. That makes it a total of 9 times between yesterday's gamed and last week's game, meaning we got to the quarterback 9 times against the NFC's two best offenses besides our own. The pass rush was what Wade was known for when he was with San Diego and it's nice to see that his system is working with the big D as well.
Solid execution on both sides of the ball yesterday. We'll need the same next week when we are back home against the Redskins. Life in the NFC East is crazy, with over half of your games being rivalry games.
Week 3 game ball - Marion Barber
Monday, September 22, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Week 2 Analysis: 2-0
Before I begin with my analysis of last nights game, I would like to say, WOW! When I turn on a football game and watch two of the top teams play each other, that is the type of game I'm wanting. If you missed this game, you truly missed a beauty. It had it all, lead changes galore, costly turnovers, and yes, even stupidity, a la DeSean Jackson
Offense:
On our first first drive, it appeared as if the unique Eagles' blitzing scheme was going to make it a long night for Romo and the O-line after. After facing a 3rd and long, Romo converted. Then on the very next sequence, third an long again. This time, it was a 72 yard bomb to T.O. (I'll be saying his name this year because it's been awhile since T.O. has been an idiot. I reserve the right to switch back to Parcell's "the player" at any time I wish, although T.O will determine that by his actions and mouth).
After another Eagle field goal, Felix Jones took the Kick off return 98 yards into the end zone.
The second quarter was when a lot of the drama happened. Romo fumbled in the end zone (was it three times on the same play?)for an Eagled TD. This was a costly turnover that gave the Eagles the lead.
But on the next drive, Romo drove down the field for yet another T.O. TD pass.
After that drive, was one of those unforgettable moments of laughter when the Eagles hooked up with a long pass with DeSean Jackson, but Jackson decided to start his end zone celebration one yard too early, but more on that when we discuss the defensive side of the ball.
Both teams then kicked a field goal which brought us to halftime.
In the second half, Dallas realized that they have a running back, so they figured they might as well give it to him a few times. Marion the Barbarian responded. In the second half he had a 1 yd rushing TD and a 17 yd TD reception. Add in a couple more Folk Field goals and Dallas limiting Philly to one TD in the second half, and Dallas rode the Marion the Barbarian to a victory as he wound down the clock in the 4th.
Witten led the team in receptions and yardage, with 7 for 110 yards. T.O. had 3 for 89, two of those three were TDs.
MB3 rushed 18 times for 63 and had 1 TD. Nearly all of his damage was done in the second half, particularly the 4th quarter.
[Lack of] Defense:
Well, the other team scored 37 points. So...how do you think our D was? Exactly.
It might be worth mentioning that T. Newman only played in the nickel package. Hopefully he'll be back to 100% next week. Still, it's difficult to say how much he would have helped.
In the first half, there really isn't much to write about. Neither team had much of a defense whatsoever (the exception, of course, was the Asante Samuel INT). It's almost like both teams were just running through their plays like they do in practice without a defense.
The defense on the DeSean Jackson play was interesting. Pacman (am I not supposed to call him that anymore?) Jones was burnt by Jackson, but as we already know, Jackson decided to throw the ball behind him at the 1 yard line. I'm not really sure if I should be upset with Pacman for not jumping on that ball. When you think about it at first, you think, "Well yeah, of course he should have jumped on it. Then it would be Dallas ball and Jackson would have looked like a moron." But at the same time, if you think about it long enough, the refs blew the whistle and signaled a touchdown, would jumping on the ball do any good? I know a lot of fans are upset that he didn't jump on it, but I think I'm going to give Pacman the benefit of the doubt. Not because I'm a Cowboy fan or because I think Pacman is a great guy (ha!), but because rarely do you see somebody like Jackson do such a stupid thing. That was absolutely ridiculous and he's lucky that they ended up with a TD on the next play.
In the second half, our defense improved greatly.
Burnett and Watkins ended the game as the team leaders in tackling, with 6 each. Ellis had 2 sacks, Ware and Ratliff each had one.
Other comments:
Penalties, ouch! 10 penalties for 108 yards. Penalties was this team's achilles heel last week in the Cleveland game and penalties was this team's achilles all throughout last year. Although this team has been more successful under Wade (thus far) than it was under Parcells, Parcells was much better about keeping the penalties under control. I know that everybody expects Dallas to go deep into the playoffs, but it's going to be tough to win in the playoffs if we are giving the other team a free 100 yards.
Everyone talked about the unique blitzing scheme that Philly uses to confuse the offensive line. True, Philly does a lot of fake blitzing and are usually quite successful at getting to the QB. But the O-line gave a very encouraging performance. Romo wasn't sacked the entire game.
The ESPN camera crew loves looking at Jerry Jones.
That's it! Next week we have a tough one against Green Bay.
Offense:
On our first first drive, it appeared as if the unique Eagles' blitzing scheme was going to make it a long night for Romo and the O-line after. After facing a 3rd and long, Romo converted. Then on the very next sequence, third an long again. This time, it was a 72 yard bomb to T.O. (I'll be saying his name this year because it's been awhile since T.O. has been an idiot. I reserve the right to switch back to Parcell's "the player" at any time I wish, although T.O will determine that by his actions and mouth).
After another Eagle field goal, Felix Jones took the Kick off return 98 yards into the end zone.
The second quarter was when a lot of the drama happened. Romo fumbled in the end zone (was it three times on the same play?)for an Eagled TD. This was a costly turnover that gave the Eagles the lead.
But on the next drive, Romo drove down the field for yet another T.O. TD pass.
After that drive, was one of those unforgettable moments of laughter when the Eagles hooked up with a long pass with DeSean Jackson, but Jackson decided to start his end zone celebration one yard too early, but more on that when we discuss the defensive side of the ball.
Both teams then kicked a field goal which brought us to halftime.
In the second half, Dallas realized that they have a running back, so they figured they might as well give it to him a few times. Marion the Barbarian responded. In the second half he had a 1 yd rushing TD and a 17 yd TD reception. Add in a couple more Folk Field goals and Dallas limiting Philly to one TD in the second half, and Dallas rode the Marion the Barbarian to a victory as he wound down the clock in the 4th.
Witten led the team in receptions and yardage, with 7 for 110 yards. T.O. had 3 for 89, two of those three were TDs.
MB3 rushed 18 times for 63 and had 1 TD. Nearly all of his damage was done in the second half, particularly the 4th quarter.
[Lack of] Defense:
Well, the other team scored 37 points. So...how do you think our D was? Exactly.
It might be worth mentioning that T. Newman only played in the nickel package. Hopefully he'll be back to 100% next week. Still, it's difficult to say how much he would have helped.
In the first half, there really isn't much to write about. Neither team had much of a defense whatsoever (the exception, of course, was the Asante Samuel INT). It's almost like both teams were just running through their plays like they do in practice without a defense.
The defense on the DeSean Jackson play was interesting. Pacman (am I not supposed to call him that anymore?) Jones was burnt by Jackson, but as we already know, Jackson decided to throw the ball behind him at the 1 yard line. I'm not really sure if I should be upset with Pacman for not jumping on that ball. When you think about it at first, you think, "Well yeah, of course he should have jumped on it. Then it would be Dallas ball and Jackson would have looked like a moron." But at the same time, if you think about it long enough, the refs blew the whistle and signaled a touchdown, would jumping on the ball do any good? I know a lot of fans are upset that he didn't jump on it, but I think I'm going to give Pacman the benefit of the doubt. Not because I'm a Cowboy fan or because I think Pacman is a great guy (ha!), but because rarely do you see somebody like Jackson do such a stupid thing. That was absolutely ridiculous and he's lucky that they ended up with a TD on the next play.
In the second half, our defense improved greatly.
Burnett and Watkins ended the game as the team leaders in tackling, with 6 each. Ellis had 2 sacks, Ware and Ratliff each had one.
Other comments:
Penalties, ouch! 10 penalties for 108 yards. Penalties was this team's achilles heel last week in the Cleveland game and penalties was this team's achilles all throughout last year. Although this team has been more successful under Wade (thus far) than it was under Parcells, Parcells was much better about keeping the penalties under control. I know that everybody expects Dallas to go deep into the playoffs, but it's going to be tough to win in the playoffs if we are giving the other team a free 100 yards.
Everyone talked about the unique blitzing scheme that Philly uses to confuse the offensive line. True, Philly does a lot of fake blitzing and are usually quite successful at getting to the QB. But the O-line gave a very encouraging performance. Romo wasn't sacked the entire game.
The ESPN camera crew loves looking at Jerry Jones.
That's it! Next week we have a tough one against Green Bay.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Cowboys coming soon...
Traditionally, on Mondays of football season I do a recap of the Cowboys game. Unfortunately, that will not be happening this week. I'm preaching this Sunday so I have a lot more writing to do this week than I normally do.
I'll very briefly comment on the game: It was good to start out the season with a multiple TD victory over a borderline playoff team, but we still have a lot to improve on if we are to be a threat deep into the postseason.
I know that's not a lot, but it'll have to do for this week.
I'll very briefly comment on the game: It was good to start out the season with a multiple TD victory over a borderline playoff team, but we still have a lot to improve on if we are to be a threat deep into the postseason.
I know that's not a lot, but it'll have to do for this week.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Way out in the outfield....
Continuing our theme on the future of the Braves, I'd like to focus our attention now on the outfield.
We are on the verge of Kotsay being traded to the Red Sox, which would mean that our best outfielder is Gregor Blanco (I'm not counting Infante as an outfielder even though he plays outfield quite often. See my previous post for my thoughts on Infante), who began the season as the team's 4th outfielder.
We have the worst outfield in the major leagues, it's not even close. It's very possible that Jeff Francoeur single handedly cost us the season. Although I've never been a fan of blaming a team's demise on one person, Frenchy comes close.
Enough about this year's outfield. Let's look ahead to the future.
In the FA market, we have the likes of Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell among a few other interesting names. The Braves do have enough money to go after an outfielder, but as I've already posted, we also have a more expensive need for pitching.
In the minors we have:
Jordan Schafer (Drafted one round after Yunel Escobar) who is sporting a 1.111 OPS in August.
Brandon Jones (Nondrafted Free agent) has a .981 OPS in August.
Josh Anderson (Drafted by the Houston Astros) has a .978 OPS in August which includes an on-base % of .419. His average for the month of August is .376. Anderson has also stolen 42 bases in the minors this year.
The above minor leaguers have all been on fire the month of August and they are pretty much all competing for a spot on the 2009 roster. Obviously the above stats won't carry over to the major leagues. All of these prospects will have their growing pains.
The big problem we have, as we all know, is Jeff Francoeur. Even though he's amongst the worst outfielders (arguably - THE worst) in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby thinks he's amongst the best. The Braves certainly treat him that way at least.
As much as I and everybody else wishes he wouldn't be our starting RF next year, the reality is that he will be back in Rightfield in 2009 whether we like it or not. This is unfortunate, but realistic. In the beginning of July, when Frenchy was sent down, Wren made it clear that he works for Frenchy, not vice versa.
Here's what we are looking at - Frenchy in right field, probably a newly acquired free agent in leftfield, whomever that might be. Centerfield is up for grabs. It's highly possible that they'll go with Blanco in CF for 2009, but it'd be nice to get some pop on occasion.
We have so many questions -
1. What about Diaz? He hasn't been mentioned much here, but will there be a spot for him next year?
2. Blanco and Anderson are kind of the same player - which one (if any) do we keep?
3. Will Brandon Jones and Jordan Schafer need another year of seasoning in the minors?
4. Will I actually watch a game after the September call-ups?
We are on the verge of Kotsay being traded to the Red Sox, which would mean that our best outfielder is Gregor Blanco (I'm not counting Infante as an outfielder even though he plays outfield quite often. See my previous post for my thoughts on Infante), who began the season as the team's 4th outfielder.
We have the worst outfield in the major leagues, it's not even close. It's very possible that Jeff Francoeur single handedly cost us the season. Although I've never been a fan of blaming a team's demise on one person, Frenchy comes close.
Enough about this year's outfield. Let's look ahead to the future.
In the FA market, we have the likes of Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell among a few other interesting names. The Braves do have enough money to go after an outfielder, but as I've already posted, we also have a more expensive need for pitching.
In the minors we have:
Jordan Schafer (Drafted one round after Yunel Escobar) who is sporting a 1.111 OPS in August.
Brandon Jones (Nondrafted Free agent) has a .981 OPS in August.
Josh Anderson (Drafted by the Houston Astros) has a .978 OPS in August which includes an on-base % of .419. His average for the month of August is .376. Anderson has also stolen 42 bases in the minors this year.
The above minor leaguers have all been on fire the month of August and they are pretty much all competing for a spot on the 2009 roster. Obviously the above stats won't carry over to the major leagues. All of these prospects will have their growing pains.
The big problem we have, as we all know, is Jeff Francoeur. Even though he's amongst the worst outfielders (arguably - THE worst) in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby thinks he's amongst the best. The Braves certainly treat him that way at least.
As much as I and everybody else wishes he wouldn't be our starting RF next year, the reality is that he will be back in Rightfield in 2009 whether we like it or not. This is unfortunate, but realistic. In the beginning of July, when Frenchy was sent down, Wren made it clear that he works for Frenchy, not vice versa.
Here's what we are looking at - Frenchy in right field, probably a newly acquired free agent in leftfield, whomever that might be. Centerfield is up for grabs. It's highly possible that they'll go with Blanco in CF for 2009, but it'd be nice to get some pop on occasion.
We have so many questions -
1. What about Diaz? He hasn't been mentioned much here, but will there be a spot for him next year?
2. Blanco and Anderson are kind of the same player - which one (if any) do we keep?
3. Will Brandon Jones and Jordan Schafer need another year of seasoning in the minors?
4. Will I actually watch a game after the September call-ups?
Thursday, August 21, 2008
2B or not 2B, is Kelly the question?
Continuing our theme on the future of the Braves, I would like to turn our attention towards one position, specifically, one player. Second baseman Kelly Johnson.
Let's look at his career splits for a moment. Kelly Johnson has some of the more interesting splits you'll ever see players have. Despite the way Cox uses him, he has a significantly higher average against left handed pitchers, although his BABIP suggests luck has helped him with that. However, his slugging % is down against the lefties. Curiously enough, his OPS+ is practically even in both platoon roles.
Another interesting split - in games the Braves win Kelly hits, reaches, and slugs .311/.403/.533. However, in losses Kelly is only sporting a line of .214/.294/.316. I think this split speaks volumes.
He's pretty even home vs. road. And he's a touch better in the first half.
Kelly is at an advantage because he is a second baseman...depending on which stat you use as your base, you'll find him ranking amongst the middle of the pack when comparing him to all other second baseman around the majors.
That's pretty much what Kelly is. He's a mediocre hitter with an mediocre glove.
The flip side is that we also have 2 other hitters, Martin Prado and Omar Infante, who are swinging well enough to justify getting more at bats. So...what do we do.
Well, here's what I'd do - trade both Prado and Infante. It's pretty simple. Right now the return we'd get for them is as high as it (most likely) will ever be. Infante has never hit this well in his career. Prado, while he was a .300 hitter in the minor leagues (career), has never slugged as well as he has been in 2008. Prado is not going to be much with a career slugging % under .400 and he's not a basestealing threat. But it's a good time to trade him while he's slugging this well.
BABIP says they've been lucky this year. We've sold low all too often, it'd be nice to sell high for a change. Besides, the last time (that I can think of) that we sold high during a trade was the Edgar Renteria trade, and look how that worked out! I bet we could get a very decent return for one or both of them.
I know the drawback in doing this. Our bench would take a hit. That's probably going to be the #1 problem people have with my suggestion. However, after the results we've had this month, I really don't think we should be concerned about bench depth. We've got to get some decent starters before we start complaining about our bench. As soon as we fill out a roster full of proven mlb starters, then we'll talk about our bench. But right now, two-thirds of our regulars would be bench players on most clubs, if they are even on the roster at all.
So, I'd trade Prado and Infante. But what about Kelly? Kelly is a tough call because when he's on, the Braves win quite frequently (as the above split indicates) but when he's off, he's Francoeuresque. If you're able to figure out a pattern in his slumps and streaks, you are a pretty good detective. Best we can do is put him in when he's swinging well and let him swing himself out of the lineup. But can he catch fire again while riding the pine for a month?
What would you do?
Let's look at his career splits for a moment. Kelly Johnson has some of the more interesting splits you'll ever see players have. Despite the way Cox uses him, he has a significantly higher average against left handed pitchers, although his BABIP suggests luck has helped him with that. However, his slugging % is down against the lefties. Curiously enough, his OPS+ is practically even in both platoon roles.
Another interesting split - in games the Braves win Kelly hits, reaches, and slugs .311/.403/.533. However, in losses Kelly is only sporting a line of .214/.294/.316. I think this split speaks volumes.
He's pretty even home vs. road. And he's a touch better in the first half.
Kelly is at an advantage because he is a second baseman...depending on which stat you use as your base, you'll find him ranking amongst the middle of the pack when comparing him to all other second baseman around the majors.
That's pretty much what Kelly is. He's a mediocre hitter with an mediocre glove.
The flip side is that we also have 2 other hitters, Martin Prado and Omar Infante, who are swinging well enough to justify getting more at bats. So...what do we do.
Well, here's what I'd do - trade both Prado and Infante. It's pretty simple. Right now the return we'd get for them is as high as it (most likely) will ever be. Infante has never hit this well in his career. Prado, while he was a .300 hitter in the minor leagues (career), has never slugged as well as he has been in 2008. Prado is not going to be much with a career slugging % under .400 and he's not a basestealing threat. But it's a good time to trade him while he's slugging this well.
BABIP says they've been lucky this year. We've sold low all too often, it'd be nice to sell high for a change. Besides, the last time (that I can think of) that we sold high during a trade was the Edgar Renteria trade, and look how that worked out! I bet we could get a very decent return for one or both of them.
I know the drawback in doing this. Our bench would take a hit. That's probably going to be the #1 problem people have with my suggestion. However, after the results we've had this month, I really don't think we should be concerned about bench depth. We've got to get some decent starters before we start complaining about our bench. As soon as we fill out a roster full of proven mlb starters, then we'll talk about our bench. But right now, two-thirds of our regulars would be bench players on most clubs, if they are even on the roster at all.
So, I'd trade Prado and Infante. But what about Kelly? Kelly is a tough call because when he's on, the Braves win quite frequently (as the above split indicates) but when he's off, he's Francoeuresque. If you're able to figure out a pattern in his slumps and streaks, you are a pretty good detective. Best we can do is put him in when he's swinging well and let him swing himself out of the lineup. But can he catch fire again while riding the pine for a month?
What would you do?
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Offseason spending spree
I and all of the other Braves fans are saying "see you next year" in mid August for the first time since I was pushing my toy trucks around the basement after I got home from First grade (I think). Still there will be a lot to watch for between now and spring training. If you search through the Braves blogs you'll see writers looking forward to seeing which prospects perform well in the September call-ups, how our DLed relievers are doing, which players have Dr. James Andrews on their speed dial.
OK, so nobody cares about that. Let's not kid ourselves and just get out there in the open what we are all thinking about. The Braves have close to half of their payroll to spend on new arms and bats this winter.
Let's look at some of the key players looking for new contracts:
**Disclaimer: It's only mid-August, and a lot can happen to change the status of some of these players. Some guys not listed have a player, club, or mutual option for '09. The following list is a "as of right now" kind of scenario...
Key Bats (Outfield):
Manny Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Pat Burrell
Two of these guys (Burrell and Dunn) are similar in a lot of ways. They are very inconsistent. They'll have 1 great week, 1 terrible week, and 1 mediocre week.
Manny might be out of our price range. Manny is currently at 20mil/year and the way he is swinging the bat right now in LA doesn't suggest a discount due to his age. Besides, it's been since John Rocker since we've had a personality like his in Atl. I don't think Manny would fit very well in Atlanta and I don't think Manny would like playing in Atlanta anyways.
Key Arms:
A.J. Burnett (might opt out)
Ryan Dempster
Ben Sheets
C.C. Sabathia
Well, what would you do? Guys like Burnett and Sheets have had injury problems. The obvious choice is Sabathia, but he has to make you a little nervous with all of those innings he has logged at his age.
Realistically, I don't see Sabathia happening. I could be wrong, but it is important to note that the Yankees will also be shopping for a starter, and you know they are going to go for the best available - C.C. I don't think it matters that the Braves have half their payroll to spend, the Yankees will outbid anybody when they are desperate enough.
Sheets has to make you nervous also, it's been 4 years since he's thrown 200 innings. I know arm injuries aren't contagious, but being surrounded by Braves pitchers with new ligaments probably won't help him. Still, this is the best chance I see the Braves having of improving their staff via free agency, as the pitching market is pretty thick this year. And I think Braves fans are getting impatient of waiting on Jo-Jo Reyes to prove himself and as injury prone as Hampton is, at least Sheets won't make me laugh like Mike Hampton does. Anyways, I say all this to say, you're not going to improve your club if you don't take chances. Here's what I'd do...
Sign Adam Dunn - 5 yr/85 mil (17 mil/year)
He made 13 mil in 2008. I figure Dunn will probably join the 17-18 per year club of outfielders joining A. Soriano, V. Wells, A. Jones and others soon to join. It seems kind of steep, especially when comparing him to Soriano. He has always struggled with batting average but who cares. We need his on base percentage almost as badly as we need his 40 homers. I'd say anything cheaper than 17 mil/year is a steal if acquiring him as a free agent. If a lot of teams are interested, look for his price to rise.
Sign Ben Sheets 4 years/60mil (15mil/year) with opportunities to make up to $3 million/year more through innings pitched, cy young votings, etc.
Sheets is a bit tougher to predict his price tag. My prediction is most likely way off. Names on his "most similar to" list include A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Brad Penny also makes an appearance in the age listing. It's unrealistic to expect him to make every start, but when he's on the hill he's producing results. He made 11 million this year and it's been one of his better years in health and performance combined. I think what makes it especially tough to predict his payroll is that (to my knowledge) an injury prone pitcher of Sheets' quality hasn't received a new contract lately. Santana and Zito didn't have an injury history when they were signed (although some say claim they predicted Zito's velocity to drop). Right now, Peavy is at 17 million/year, so that has to be a standard somewhere to start at. Even with his injury history, he's still going to be expensive, as the price of pitching is always rising. It would be a mistake to not have any performance/durability incentives in Sheets' contract.
Sign Ryan Dempster: 3 years/36 million (12 million/year)
I realize that Ryan Dempster's 2008 campaign is most likely a fluke. He's never put up numbers this good before. He's been a reliever the past several years, so that probably does make this a pretty special case. But I really doubt we'll be able to afford two top of the rotation starters and an outfield powerbat. If we get a leftfield (or maybe rightfield, but doubt it) bat, then we'll probably only be able to purchase 1 ace and possibly a second, but most likely a third starter, bringing us to Dempster.
True, he's not incredible. However, his ERA+ has been 96 or higher each of the past 5 seasons, 112 or higher in 3 of those 5 seasons. After what Braves fans have experienced this year, I think we'd be pretty satisfied for anybody who throws about 180 league average innings. I guess it all just hinges on if the Cubs resign him or not. With a rotation Already consisting of Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and Marquis you figure the competition will be tough for Dempster, who until this year was a reliever since 2004.
Some of you readers may disagree, but I'm gonna guess that 12 mil/year is a fair market value for Dempster. It may seem a little on the low side if he's a starter, and if you solely look at 2008, it is low. But remember his career ERA is 4.60. Much more money than that and he's getting elite pitcher money, and Dempster is not among the Elite.
Well, that's 44 million per year on those guys. It has been calculated that about 50 million will be available for spending, but a lot of that depends on if Glavine retires after seeing his MRI. I'm a bit skeptical if it's really that much, but if that number is accurate, we can use the remaining 6 million to plug up holes in the bench or bullpen.
I'd go to war with that Rotation...
Sheets
Dempster
Jurrjens
Campillo
Reyes/Morton/Whoever????
As far as the lineup...
Escobar
Kotchman
Chipper
Dunn
McCann
Johnson
Frenchy
Whatever minor leaguer plays CF for us next year
Pitcher
The ineup might could use a bit of tweaking still, but we can see clearly that the addition of Dunn is quite an improvement alone.
OK, so let me have it. Tell me how wrong I am. Do you disagree with my signings? Are my contracts too low or too high paying? I admit, I'm not an agent nor am I a GM. What do you think?
OK, so nobody cares about that. Let's not kid ourselves and just get out there in the open what we are all thinking about. The Braves have close to half of their payroll to spend on new arms and bats this winter.
Let's look at some of the key players looking for new contracts:
**Disclaimer: It's only mid-August, and a lot can happen to change the status of some of these players. Some guys not listed have a player, club, or mutual option for '09. The following list is a "as of right now" kind of scenario...
Key Bats (Outfield):
Manny Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Pat Burrell
Two of these guys (Burrell and Dunn) are similar in a lot of ways. They are very inconsistent. They'll have 1 great week, 1 terrible week, and 1 mediocre week.
Manny might be out of our price range. Manny is currently at 20mil/year and the way he is swinging the bat right now in LA doesn't suggest a discount due to his age. Besides, it's been since John Rocker since we've had a personality like his in Atl. I don't think Manny would fit very well in Atlanta and I don't think Manny would like playing in Atlanta anyways.
Key Arms:
A.J. Burnett (might opt out)
Ryan Dempster
Ben Sheets
C.C. Sabathia
Well, what would you do? Guys like Burnett and Sheets have had injury problems. The obvious choice is Sabathia, but he has to make you a little nervous with all of those innings he has logged at his age.
Realistically, I don't see Sabathia happening. I could be wrong, but it is important to note that the Yankees will also be shopping for a starter, and you know they are going to go for the best available - C.C. I don't think it matters that the Braves have half their payroll to spend, the Yankees will outbid anybody when they are desperate enough.
Sheets has to make you nervous also, it's been 4 years since he's thrown 200 innings. I know arm injuries aren't contagious, but being surrounded by Braves pitchers with new ligaments probably won't help him. Still, this is the best chance I see the Braves having of improving their staff via free agency, as the pitching market is pretty thick this year. And I think Braves fans are getting impatient of waiting on Jo-Jo Reyes to prove himself and as injury prone as Hampton is, at least Sheets won't make me laugh like Mike Hampton does. Anyways, I say all this to say, you're not going to improve your club if you don't take chances. Here's what I'd do...
Sign Adam Dunn - 5 yr/85 mil (17 mil/year)
He made 13 mil in 2008. I figure Dunn will probably join the 17-18 per year club of outfielders joining A. Soriano, V. Wells, A. Jones and others soon to join. It seems kind of steep, especially when comparing him to Soriano. He has always struggled with batting average but who cares. We need his on base percentage almost as badly as we need his 40 homers. I'd say anything cheaper than 17 mil/year is a steal if acquiring him as a free agent. If a lot of teams are interested, look for his price to rise.
Sign Ben Sheets 4 years/60mil (15mil/year) with opportunities to make up to $3 million/year more through innings pitched, cy young votings, etc.
Sheets is a bit tougher to predict his price tag. My prediction is most likely way off. Names on his "most similar to" list include A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Brad Penny also makes an appearance in the age listing. It's unrealistic to expect him to make every start, but when he's on the hill he's producing results. He made 11 million this year and it's been one of his better years in health and performance combined. I think what makes it especially tough to predict his payroll is that (to my knowledge) an injury prone pitcher of Sheets' quality hasn't received a new contract lately. Santana and Zito didn't have an injury history when they were signed (although some say claim they predicted Zito's velocity to drop). Right now, Peavy is at 17 million/year, so that has to be a standard somewhere to start at. Even with his injury history, he's still going to be expensive, as the price of pitching is always rising. It would be a mistake to not have any performance/durability incentives in Sheets' contract.
Sign Ryan Dempster: 3 years/36 million (12 million/year)
I realize that Ryan Dempster's 2008 campaign is most likely a fluke. He's never put up numbers this good before. He's been a reliever the past several years, so that probably does make this a pretty special case. But I really doubt we'll be able to afford two top of the rotation starters and an outfield powerbat. If we get a leftfield (or maybe rightfield, but doubt it) bat, then we'll probably only be able to purchase 1 ace and possibly a second, but most likely a third starter, bringing us to Dempster.
True, he's not incredible. However, his ERA+ has been 96 or higher each of the past 5 seasons, 112 or higher in 3 of those 5 seasons. After what Braves fans have experienced this year, I think we'd be pretty satisfied for anybody who throws about 180 league average innings. I guess it all just hinges on if the Cubs resign him or not. With a rotation Already consisting of Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and Marquis you figure the competition will be tough for Dempster, who until this year was a reliever since 2004.
Some of you readers may disagree, but I'm gonna guess that 12 mil/year is a fair market value for Dempster. It may seem a little on the low side if he's a starter, and if you solely look at 2008, it is low. But remember his career ERA is 4.60. Much more money than that and he's getting elite pitcher money, and Dempster is not among the Elite.
Well, that's 44 million per year on those guys. It has been calculated that about 50 million will be available for spending, but a lot of that depends on if Glavine retires after seeing his MRI. I'm a bit skeptical if it's really that much, but if that number is accurate, we can use the remaining 6 million to plug up holes in the bench or bullpen.
I'd go to war with that Rotation...
Sheets
Dempster
Jurrjens
Campillo
Reyes/Morton/Whoever????
As far as the lineup...
Escobar
Kotchman
Chipper
Dunn
McCann
Johnson
Frenchy
Whatever minor leaguer plays CF for us next year
Pitcher
The ineup might could use a bit of tweaking still, but we can see clearly that the addition of Dunn is quite an improvement alone.
OK, so let me have it. Tell me how wrong I am. Do you disagree with my signings? Are my contracts too low or too high paying? I admit, I'm not an agent nor am I a GM. What do you think?
Friday, August 1, 2008
Netflix Friends
I'm in the process of trying to take advantage of the Netflix friends application. It's a great way to share movie tastes and opinions with each other.
I sent out several invitation, but if I missed you, either give me your email address or just send me an invitation.
Watch the Braves tomorrow and look for the Central Youth group in left center field.
I sent out several invitation, but if I missed you, either give me your email address or just send me an invitation.
Watch the Braves tomorrow and look for the Central Youth group in left center field.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
