It took me awhile but here it finally is. Let me begin part 2 with a quote from myself-
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
The Last time...
Just when you thought I was done with my ranting...I did some more writing:
The Last time the NL won the All-Star game...
The Dallas Cowboys won their third super bowl in 4 years.
The Summer Olympics were held in Atlanta.
The O.J. Simpson civil trial began.
Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in the U.S. Presidential Election.
The Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation included Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Jason Schmidt.
I began 7th grade and was a green belt in Tae kwon do.
Wow, it's been a long time since the NL won...
The Last time the NL won the All-Star game...
The Dallas Cowboys won their third super bowl in 4 years.
The Summer Olympics were held in Atlanta.
The O.J. Simpson civil trial began.
Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in the U.S. Presidential Election.
The Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation included Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Jason Schmidt.
I began 7th grade and was a green belt in Tae kwon do.
Wow, it's been a long time since the NL won...
Allstar weekend/ Death to LaRussa
Wow, that was probably the worse homerun derby ever! How many balls were hit into the Cove, like 2? The righties dominated even though they were at a disadvantage. Still, it was an incredibly boring event, nobody had any monster rounds or anything. Call me crazy, but I've always found the HR derby a little on the boring side. Watching the game is far more interesting than watching batting practice.
The AS game itself, was actually an excellent game, although I'm not pleased with the outcome. This game was by far the best all star game we've had in awhile. It was close the whole way (and didn't end in a tie), had brilliant pitching moments, brilliant hitting performances, and it even had a little controversy there at the end regarding LaRussa/Pujols.
Hooray, I found another item to add to my "Why I hate LaRussa" list. Think about it, why not pinch hit with Pujols? If you missed it, Let's relive the moment shall we?
The bases are Loaded in the 9th. Hardy is on 3rd. D. Lee is on 2nd. Hudson is on 1st.
Coming to the plate: Aaron Rowand.
Still sitting on the Bench: Hurricane Albert Pujols.
Of course, Larussa stuck with Rowand and the NL blew their chance. Why would Larussa not go with Pujols, HIS OWN PLAYER!!!!! Who would you rather go with, Rowand or Pujols? Pujols is my choice.
But then It came to me. I know exactly why LaRussa didn't hit for them...because homefield advantage doesn't mean anything to his Cardinals. Oh yeah, that's right. Tony just stuck it to the NL and gave the AL Home field because his cardinals won't be in the postseason. Good grief, thanks Tony.
I realize this probably won't be the case this year (as much as I wish it was), but if the Braves are in Game 7 of the World series they will be playing at an away park and I will know exactly who I will be thinking of during that game, that's right, mr. Larussa himself.
OK, I apologize for that Larussa Rant. I will now go back to working on my Lesson.
UPDATE: Milestones Pt 2 is almost done.
The AS game itself, was actually an excellent game, although I'm not pleased with the outcome. This game was by far the best all star game we've had in awhile. It was close the whole way (and didn't end in a tie), had brilliant pitching moments, brilliant hitting performances, and it even had a little controversy there at the end regarding LaRussa/Pujols.
Hooray, I found another item to add to my "Why I hate LaRussa" list. Think about it, why not pinch hit with Pujols? If you missed it, Let's relive the moment shall we?
The bases are Loaded in the 9th. Hardy is on 3rd. D. Lee is on 2nd. Hudson is on 1st.
Coming to the plate: Aaron Rowand.
Still sitting on the Bench: Hurricane Albert Pujols.
Of course, Larussa stuck with Rowand and the NL blew their chance. Why would Larussa not go with Pujols, HIS OWN PLAYER!!!!! Who would you rather go with, Rowand or Pujols? Pujols is my choice.
But then It came to me. I know exactly why LaRussa didn't hit for them...because homefield advantage doesn't mean anything to his Cardinals. Oh yeah, that's right. Tony just stuck it to the NL and gave the AL Home field because his cardinals won't be in the postseason. Good grief, thanks Tony.
I realize this probably won't be the case this year (as much as I wish it was), but if the Braves are in Game 7 of the World series they will be playing at an away park and I will know exactly who I will be thinking of during that game, that's right, mr. Larussa himself.
OK, I apologize for that Larussa Rant. I will now go back to working on my Lesson.
UPDATE: Milestones Pt 2 is almost done.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
Milestones - Pt. 2 (HRs)
It took me awhile but here it finally is. Let me begin part 2 with a quote from myself-
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Man vs. Wild
I don't know how many of you have seen this show...I hate to admit but I have watched it on occasion (although I wouldn't say I enjoy watching it). Anyways...a man parachutes from a helicopter into all kinds of interesting territories and shows his audience how to survive in that particular surrounding. I'm not convinced that it is 100% authentic but it has its moments.
Here is a clip of him surviving in Africa (I hope you aren't hungry):
Still writing Milestones Pt. 2...I'll put it up when I'm finished.
Here is a clip of him surviving in Africa (I hope you aren't hungry):
Still writing Milestones Pt. 2...I'll put it up when I'm finished.
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Milestones - Pt. 1 (Wins)
So much talk about Bonds. So much talk about Clemens. So much talk about Biggio. So much talk about Glavine. Give me a break. What is a sports fan supposed to watch on tv these days amidst so many dumb sports debating programs?
Yeah, yeah, Bonds is not far away from 755, Clemens won 350, Biggio hit his 3,000th and Glavine is sitting at 297 wins.
Let me give some advice. I'm not big on making bold predictions, so this is a rarity for me. But here it goes: When Glavine is on the mound going for win # 300 EVERYONE needs to be watching.
Why? Because it quite easily could NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! Yes, I really did just say that. You don't have to read it agian. Seriously, the days of pitchers making it to 300 wins are virtually over.
Right now, Glavine has 297 wins and Randy Johnson has 284 wins. Glavine is going to get to 300 in 2007, I don't think anyone is arguing that. Let's talk about Johnson...
At the age of 43 he has 284. I know 16 wins doesn't sound like much, but for Randy Johnson's situation he has a long way to go. His arm is getting old and wrinkly. He has only thrown 56 innings so far this season. If he wants to get to 300 then he is going to have to stay healthy.
But not just that, he is going to have to be lights out when he is on the mound. As a Starting Pitcher, it's going to be harder for him to get a win with the Diamondbacks than it was with the Yankees. He doesn't have the same offense behind him, and it shows.
Johnson has a shot, but I wouldn't be placing bets that he will do it quite yet.
After Glavine and Johnson...the next on our list to make it to 300 wins is...well....hmmm...oh, I give up, I just can't find one.
Going down the list of career wins here are active pitchers:
Mike Mussina - Age 38 - 243 Wins
Seems highly unlikely to me. 57 wins to go and his 162 game average is 16 wins. That's about 3.5 good, healthy years. I don't doubt he'll still be around 3.5 years from now but it's the healthy part that I'm doubting. He's had his fair share of injury problems and I'm sure those problems will only continue.
David Wells - Age 44 - 234 Wins
This one to me is a no brainer. He's 44 years old. If you're in the shape that Julio Franco is in then it is a something you might be able to accomplish...but if you've watched Wells on the mound lately you notice one thing: Wells is NOT in the shape that Julio Franco is in.
Jamie Moyer - Age 44 - 223 Wins
He's in better shape than Wells, but again, he's just too old.
Curt Schilling - Age 40 - 213 Wins
I was quite shocked when I first saw how far down the list Schilling is. Seems like Curt has been around forever (he pretty much has) and for him to only have 213 wins shocked me as much as it would shock me to watch Colonel Sanders eating a Big Mac. But nonetheless, his 162 game avg is just a 14-9 record. The beginning of his season was when he hurt his chances at 300. He had a 3 year spand (94-96) where he won only 18 games total (all three years) and not to mention the fact that he didn't really become a starter until his 5th year pitching. If you combine all of those factors plus mix in a few DL visits you wind up being just north of 200 wins.
As we continue going down the list we keep seeing pitchers who have no chance at 300:
Kevin Brown - Age 42 - 211 wins
Kenny Rogers - Age 42 - 209 wins
Pedro Martinez - Age 35 - 206 wins (His 162 game avg is 17-7, but the truth is close to half of his wins came during a 5-6 year peak unlike anyone has ever seen. Of this group of 4, he is the only one with a legitimate chance, but the word "legitimate" might be stretching it, along with the word "chance")
John Smoltz - Age 40 - 202 wins
And that's all of our pitchers that are north of 200 wins. To find someone who is on pace to get to 300 we have to dig way down the list to young studs such as:
C.C. Sabathia - Age 26- 93 wins
I like his chances the best. He's at an advantage in this group because he arguably had the best first 2 seasons in this group. He was at 20 wins by age 21. If he can win 7 more games in 2007 then he'll be a third of the way there at Age 26. If he can stay healthy he's golden.
Dontrelle Willis - Age 25 - 65 wins
If he mantains his 15 win avg for 15 more years (putting him at age 40) he'll be knocking on 300's door.
Jake Peavy - Age 26 - 66 wins
It'll be harder for Jacob Edward Peavy because he really didn't get a lot of wins his first couple years. He's only reached 15 wins once in his short career, but I'm sure that will change (possibly by the middle of August.) With a few more top heavy seasons such as 2007 he'll be doing himself a favor.
Josh Beckett - Age 27 - 68 wins
Now is when I start to kid with myself. Beckett doesn't really belong in this group. He's not really on pace for 300. He needs to be a few years younger to be on a reasonable pace. But that's mostly because in his 5 year Marlin Career he only totalled 41 wins. Still, if he has a Pedro Martinez like peak and if he can last till his mid 40s then 300 is accomplishable.
Carlos Zambrano - Age 26 - 74 wins
Similar to Peavy. He's good, but he needs to start getting more wins than his 14-9 avg. His tops is 16 wins and he's done that twice. If he gets his avg up a bit then his chances will increase (duh).
Mark Buerhle - Age 28 - 102 wins
Again, if you haven't noticed by now, I am stretching the term "on pace". These last few, Buerhle included, need to step it up some if they want to be "on pace". Buerhle is a third of the way there, but it took him a bit longer than it probably should. If he continues at his 162 game avg then he'll be sitting at about 270 wins at age 40. If he stays consistent, healthy, and can log in a some 20 win seasos to get his avg up, and if he pitches into his mid 40s, he may be in business. He's currently in contract extension/trade talks. It will help his cause if he is traded to an NL team (cough, cough, Atlanta) where he will probably get more wins.
Honorable Mention: Johan Santana (you could probably argue a better case for Johan than some others on this list. But this list is getting long and I'm tired of stretching "on pace" more and more.
Well that was my list of guys with the best chances at 300. I tried to keep this as simple as possible, using mostly Sean Foreman's 162 game avg. If you include other factors such as injury then guys like Zambrano and Willis are doomed. They do things with their shoulder tendons that don't look very comfortable and I'm sure their tendons will tell you the same thing. I see them having careers similar to Sandy Koufax...a lights out pitcher but had to walk away from baseball way too early because of injuries. I've already touched on one...let me provide 3 reasons why it is harder/virtually impossible to get to 300 these days:
Injuries
I'll be short on this one because I've already touched on it. If you factor in injuries among other things then it doesn't really look like any of these guys will make it to 300. ANY. Even Sabathia. When teams start leaning on their pitchers too much then arm problems will occur. It's not that they might occur, it's that they will.
Pitching Management
But there is another reason 300 wins seems virtually impossible for young pitchers now. It really is harder to get a win today than in the previous generations. Pitchers lasted through more innings. With lefty and righty specialists, set-up men, and closers...a starting pitchers job has changed. It has changed from "give me a complete game shutout" to "give me 5-6 good innings". Because most bullpens are below average wins are blown. These wins can add up. Because of this it is not uncommon to see relief pitchers with 7-8 wins...the same totals as a many 5th starters in a lot of cases.
Offensive Era
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much. Anyways, this is the decade of the homer. Forget small ball. Why steal a base when you can just trot around the diamond? Say what you want to about steriods and shorter mounds and no spitballs, but pitchers don't really stand a chance these days.
So, I'll conclude by returning where I began. Watch Glavine when he goes for his 300th win. If you miss it...hope and pray that Randy Johnson can last 16 more wins. Because after Johnson, there's a good chance it won't ever happen again. EVER.
Yeah, yeah, Bonds is not far away from 755, Clemens won 350, Biggio hit his 3,000th and Glavine is sitting at 297 wins.
Let me give some advice. I'm not big on making bold predictions, so this is a rarity for me. But here it goes: When Glavine is on the mound going for win # 300 EVERYONE needs to be watching.
Why? Because it quite easily could NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! Yes, I really did just say that. You don't have to read it agian. Seriously, the days of pitchers making it to 300 wins are virtually over.
Right now, Glavine has 297 wins and Randy Johnson has 284 wins. Glavine is going to get to 300 in 2007, I don't think anyone is arguing that. Let's talk about Johnson...
At the age of 43 he has 284. I know 16 wins doesn't sound like much, but for Randy Johnson's situation he has a long way to go. His arm is getting old and wrinkly. He has only thrown 56 innings so far this season. If he wants to get to 300 then he is going to have to stay healthy.
But not just that, he is going to have to be lights out when he is on the mound. As a Starting Pitcher, it's going to be harder for him to get a win with the Diamondbacks than it was with the Yankees. He doesn't have the same offense behind him, and it shows.
Johnson has a shot, but I wouldn't be placing bets that he will do it quite yet.
After Glavine and Johnson...the next on our list to make it to 300 wins is...well....hmmm...oh, I give up, I just can't find one.
Going down the list of career wins here are active pitchers:
Mike Mussina - Age 38 - 243 Wins
Seems highly unlikely to me. 57 wins to go and his 162 game average is 16 wins. That's about 3.5 good, healthy years. I don't doubt he'll still be around 3.5 years from now but it's the healthy part that I'm doubting. He's had his fair share of injury problems and I'm sure those problems will only continue.
David Wells - Age 44 - 234 Wins
This one to me is a no brainer. He's 44 years old. If you're in the shape that Julio Franco is in then it is a something you might be able to accomplish...but if you've watched Wells on the mound lately you notice one thing: Wells is NOT in the shape that Julio Franco is in.
Jamie Moyer - Age 44 - 223 Wins
He's in better shape than Wells, but again, he's just too old.
Curt Schilling - Age 40 - 213 Wins
I was quite shocked when I first saw how far down the list Schilling is. Seems like Curt has been around forever (he pretty much has) and for him to only have 213 wins shocked me as much as it would shock me to watch Colonel Sanders eating a Big Mac. But nonetheless, his 162 game avg is just a 14-9 record. The beginning of his season was when he hurt his chances at 300. He had a 3 year spand (94-96) where he won only 18 games total (all three years) and not to mention the fact that he didn't really become a starter until his 5th year pitching. If you combine all of those factors plus mix in a few DL visits you wind up being just north of 200 wins.
As we continue going down the list we keep seeing pitchers who have no chance at 300:
Kevin Brown - Age 42 - 211 wins
Kenny Rogers - Age 42 - 209 wins
Pedro Martinez - Age 35 - 206 wins (His 162 game avg is 17-7, but the truth is close to half of his wins came during a 5-6 year peak unlike anyone has ever seen. Of this group of 4, he is the only one with a legitimate chance, but the word "legitimate" might be stretching it, along with the word "chance")
John Smoltz - Age 40 - 202 wins
And that's all of our pitchers that are north of 200 wins. To find someone who is on pace to get to 300 we have to dig way down the list to young studs such as:
C.C. Sabathia - Age 26- 93 wins
I like his chances the best. He's at an advantage in this group because he arguably had the best first 2 seasons in this group. He was at 20 wins by age 21. If he can win 7 more games in 2007 then he'll be a third of the way there at Age 26. If he can stay healthy he's golden.
Dontrelle Willis - Age 25 - 65 wins
If he mantains his 15 win avg for 15 more years (putting him at age 40) he'll be knocking on 300's door.
Jake Peavy - Age 26 - 66 wins
It'll be harder for Jacob Edward Peavy because he really didn't get a lot of wins his first couple years. He's only reached 15 wins once in his short career, but I'm sure that will change (possibly by the middle of August.) With a few more top heavy seasons such as 2007 he'll be doing himself a favor.
Josh Beckett - Age 27 - 68 wins
Now is when I start to kid with myself. Beckett doesn't really belong in this group. He's not really on pace for 300. He needs to be a few years younger to be on a reasonable pace. But that's mostly because in his 5 year Marlin Career he only totalled 41 wins. Still, if he has a Pedro Martinez like peak and if he can last till his mid 40s then 300 is accomplishable.
Carlos Zambrano - Age 26 - 74 wins
Similar to Peavy. He's good, but he needs to start getting more wins than his 14-9 avg. His tops is 16 wins and he's done that twice. If he gets his avg up a bit then his chances will increase (duh).
Mark Buerhle - Age 28 - 102 wins
Again, if you haven't noticed by now, I am stretching the term "on pace". These last few, Buerhle included, need to step it up some if they want to be "on pace". Buerhle is a third of the way there, but it took him a bit longer than it probably should. If he continues at his 162 game avg then he'll be sitting at about 270 wins at age 40. If he stays consistent, healthy, and can log in a some 20 win seasos to get his avg up, and if he pitches into his mid 40s, he may be in business. He's currently in contract extension/trade talks. It will help his cause if he is traded to an NL team (cough, cough, Atlanta) where he will probably get more wins.
Honorable Mention: Johan Santana (you could probably argue a better case for Johan than some others on this list. But this list is getting long and I'm tired of stretching "on pace" more and more.
Well that was my list of guys with the best chances at 300. I tried to keep this as simple as possible, using mostly Sean Foreman's 162 game avg. If you include other factors such as injury then guys like Zambrano and Willis are doomed. They do things with their shoulder tendons that don't look very comfortable and I'm sure their tendons will tell you the same thing. I see them having careers similar to Sandy Koufax...a lights out pitcher but had to walk away from baseball way too early because of injuries. I've already touched on one...let me provide 3 reasons why it is harder/virtually impossible to get to 300 these days:
Injuries
I'll be short on this one because I've already touched on it. If you factor in injuries among other things then it doesn't really look like any of these guys will make it to 300. ANY. Even Sabathia. When teams start leaning on their pitchers too much then arm problems will occur. It's not that they might occur, it's that they will.
Pitching Management
But there is another reason 300 wins seems virtually impossible for young pitchers now. It really is harder to get a win today than in the previous generations. Pitchers lasted through more innings. With lefty and righty specialists, set-up men, and closers...a starting pitchers job has changed. It has changed from "give me a complete game shutout" to "give me 5-6 good innings". Because most bullpens are below average wins are blown. These wins can add up. Because of this it is not uncommon to see relief pitchers with 7-8 wins...the same totals as a many 5th starters in a lot of cases.
Offensive Era
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much. Anyways, this is the decade of the homer. Forget small ball. Why steal a base when you can just trot around the diamond? Say what you want to about steriods and shorter mounds and no spitballs, but pitchers don't really stand a chance these days.
So, I'll conclude by returning where I began. Watch Glavine when he goes for his 300th win. If you miss it...hope and pray that Randy Johnson can last 16 more wins. Because after Johnson, there's a good chance it won't ever happen again. EVER.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Our Message(s)
What!?! can it be? a new post from Petty's Ponderings? Sure enough. Sorry it's been awhile. The knee is better, still struggling to walk at times but right now I'm probably about 75% healed. The last 25 will come very slowly according to the doctors...quite possibly several months. But hey, as long as I'm walking.
I wanna discuss something I've been struggling with lately, and that is our message. I'm not talking about what we teach, i'm talking about our message that is indirectly communicated from our actions.
Parents teach their kids something when the kid hears mommy yelling at a telemarketer over the phone. The kids are watching what daddy looks at on TV and that sends a message. If Dave receives too much change at the cash register, Dave's kids are sent a message when Dave sneaks out of the store hoping no one realizes their mistake.
Now to take it further...What do you do if doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
I never really thought that it was possible for such a scenario to even exist. But that is kind of the dilemma I am in. I cannot release details at this time, but hopefully tings will pan out. I'm open to thoughts on the question above, What do you do when doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
Random thoughts on MLB, The Braves:
Not much to say, as usual I thought some all stars were undeserving and some were left off. I guess it is to be expected. Doesn't really matter though because either way the NL doesn't stand a chance without a miracle (1996 was the last time the NL won the Midsummer classic)
Random thoughts on the NBA draft:
I'm a Bulls fan (but one could argue a strong case that I'm not an NBA fan at all), but it will be obnoxious watching Joakim Noah play for the Bulls, a first round draft pick that I wasn't really impressed with.
Random thoughts on NASCAR:
they are loud and go zoom
I wanna discuss something I've been struggling with lately, and that is our message. I'm not talking about what we teach, i'm talking about our message that is indirectly communicated from our actions.
Parents teach their kids something when the kid hears mommy yelling at a telemarketer over the phone. The kids are watching what daddy looks at on TV and that sends a message. If Dave receives too much change at the cash register, Dave's kids are sent a message when Dave sneaks out of the store hoping no one realizes their mistake.
Now to take it further...What do you do if doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
I never really thought that it was possible for such a scenario to even exist. But that is kind of the dilemma I am in. I cannot release details at this time, but hopefully tings will pan out. I'm open to thoughts on the question above, What do you do when doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
Random thoughts on MLB, The Braves:
Not much to say, as usual I thought some all stars were undeserving and some were left off. I guess it is to be expected. Doesn't really matter though because either way the NL doesn't stand a chance without a miracle (1996 was the last time the NL won the Midsummer classic)
Random thoughts on the NBA draft:
I'm a Bulls fan (but one could argue a strong case that I'm not an NBA fan at all), but it will be obnoxious watching Joakim Noah play for the Bulls, a first round draft pick that I wasn't really impressed with.
Random thoughts on NASCAR:
they are loud and go zoom
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