Milestones - Pt. 1 (Wins)

So much talk about Bonds. So much talk about Clemens. So much talk about Biggio. So much talk about Glavine. Give me a break. What is a sports fan supposed to watch on tv these days amidst so many dumb sports debating programs?

Yeah, yeah, Bonds is not far away from 755, Clemens won 350, Biggio hit his 3,000th and Glavine is sitting at 297 wins.

Let me give some advice. I'm not big on making bold predictions, so this is a rarity for me. But here it goes: When Glavine is on the mound going for win # 300 EVERYONE needs to be watching.

Why? Because it quite easily could NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! Yes, I really did just say that. You don't have to read it agian. Seriously, the days of pitchers making it to 300 wins are virtually over.

Right now, Glavine has 297 wins and Randy Johnson has 284 wins. Glavine is going to get to 300 in 2007, I don't think anyone is arguing that. Let's talk about Johnson...

At the age of 43 he has 284. I know 16 wins doesn't sound like much, but for Randy Johnson's situation he has a long way to go. His arm is getting old and wrinkly. He has only thrown 56 innings so far this season. If he wants to get to 300 then he is going to have to stay healthy.

But not just that, he is going to have to be lights out when he is on the mound. As a Starting Pitcher, it's going to be harder for him to get a win with the Diamondbacks than it was with the Yankees. He doesn't have the same offense behind him, and it shows.

Johnson has a shot, but I wouldn't be placing bets that he will do it quite yet.

After Glavine and Johnson...the next on our list to make it to 300 wins is...well....hmmm...oh, I give up, I just can't find one.

Going down the list of career wins here are active pitchers:

Mike Mussina - Age 38 - 243 Wins

Seems highly unlikely to me. 57 wins to go and his 162 game average is 16 wins. That's about 3.5 good, healthy years. I don't doubt he'll still be around 3.5 years from now but it's the healthy part that I'm doubting. He's had his fair share of injury problems and I'm sure those problems will only continue.

David Wells - Age 44 - 234 Wins

This one to me is a no brainer. He's 44 years old. If you're in the shape that Julio Franco is in then it is a something you might be able to accomplish...but if you've watched Wells on the mound lately you notice one thing: Wells is NOT in the shape that Julio Franco is in.

Jamie Moyer - Age 44 - 223 Wins

He's in better shape than Wells, but again, he's just too old.

Curt Schilling - Age 40 - 213 Wins

I was quite shocked when I first saw how far down the list Schilling is. Seems like Curt has been around forever (he pretty much has) and for him to only have 213 wins shocked me as much as it would shock me to watch Colonel Sanders eating a Big Mac. But nonetheless, his 162 game avg is just a 14-9 record. The beginning of his season was when he hurt his chances at 300. He had a 3 year spand (94-96) where he won only 18 games total (all three years) and not to mention the fact that he didn't really become a starter until his 5th year pitching. If you combine all of those factors plus mix in a few DL visits you wind up being just north of 200 wins.

As we continue going down the list we keep seeing pitchers who have no chance at 300:


Kevin Brown - Age 42 - 211 wins
Kenny Rogers - Age 42 - 209 wins
Pedro Martinez - Age 35 - 206 wins (His 162 game avg is 17-7, but the truth is close to half of his wins came during a 5-6 year peak unlike anyone has ever seen. Of this group of 4, he is the only one with a legitimate chance, but the word "legitimate" might be stretching it, along with the word "chance")
John Smoltz - Age 40 - 202 wins

And that's all of our pitchers that are north of 200 wins. To find someone who is on pace to get to 300 we have to dig way down the list to young studs such as:

C.C. Sabathia - Age 26- 93 wins
I like his chances the best. He's at an advantage in this group because he arguably had the best first 2 seasons in this group. He was at 20 wins by age 21. If he can win 7 more games in 2007 then he'll be a third of the way there at Age 26. If he can stay healthy he's golden.

Dontrelle Willis - Age 25 - 65 wins
If he mantains his 15 win avg for 15 more years (putting him at age 40) he'll be knocking on 300's door.

Jake Peavy - Age 26 - 66 wins
It'll be harder for Jacob Edward Peavy because he really didn't get a lot of wins his first couple years. He's only reached 15 wins once in his short career, but I'm sure that will change (possibly by the middle of August.) With a few more top heavy seasons such as 2007 he'll be doing himself a favor.

Josh Beckett - Age 27 - 68 wins
Now is when I start to kid with myself. Beckett doesn't really belong in this group. He's not really on pace for 300. He needs to be a few years younger to be on a reasonable pace. But that's mostly because in his 5 year Marlin Career he only totalled 41 wins. Still, if he has a Pedro Martinez like peak and if he can last till his mid 40s then 300 is accomplishable.

Carlos Zambrano - Age 26 - 74 wins
Similar to Peavy. He's good, but he needs to start getting more wins than his 14-9 avg. His tops is 16 wins and he's done that twice. If he gets his avg up a bit then his chances will increase (duh).

Mark Buerhle - Age 28 - 102 wins
Again, if you haven't noticed by now, I am stretching the term "on pace". These last few, Buerhle included, need to step it up some if they want to be "on pace". Buerhle is a third of the way there, but it took him a bit longer than it probably should. If he continues at his 162 game avg then he'll be sitting at about 270 wins at age 40. If he stays consistent, healthy, and can log in a some 20 win seasos to get his avg up, and if he pitches into his mid 40s, he may be in business. He's currently in contract extension/trade talks. It will help his cause if he is traded to an NL team (cough, cough, Atlanta) where he will probably get more wins.

Honorable Mention: Johan Santana (you could probably argue a better case for Johan than some others on this list. But this list is getting long and I'm tired of stretching "on pace" more and more.

Well that was my list of guys with the best chances at 300. I tried to keep this as simple as possible, using mostly Sean Foreman's 162 game avg. If you include other factors such as injury then guys like Zambrano and Willis are doomed. They do things with their shoulder tendons that don't look very comfortable and I'm sure their tendons will tell you the same thing. I see them having careers similar to Sandy Koufax...a lights out pitcher but had to walk away from baseball way too early because of injuries. I've already touched on one...let me provide 3 reasons why it is harder/virtually impossible to get to 300 these days:

Injuries
I'll be short on this one because I've already touched on it. If you factor in injuries among other things then it doesn't really look like any of these guys will make it to 300. ANY. Even Sabathia. When teams start leaning on their pitchers too much then arm problems will occur. It's not that they might occur, it's that they will.

Pitching Management
But there is another reason 300 wins seems virtually impossible for young pitchers now. It really is harder to get a win today than in the previous generations. Pitchers lasted through more innings. With lefty and righty specialists, set-up men, and closers...a starting pitchers job has changed. It has changed from "give me a complete game shutout" to "give me 5-6 good innings". Because most bullpens are below average wins are blown. These wins can add up. Because of this it is not uncommon to see relief pitchers with 7-8 wins...the same totals as a many 5th starters in a lot of cases.

Offensive Era
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much. Anyways, this is the decade of the homer. Forget small ball. Why steal a base when you can just trot around the diamond? Say what you want to about steriods and shorter mounds and no spitballs, but pitchers don't really stand a chance these days.

So, I'll conclude by returning where I began. Watch Glavine when he goes for his 300th win. If you miss it...hope and pray that Randy Johnson can last 16 more wins. Because after Johnson, there's a good chance it won't ever happen again. EVER.