Tuesday, July 17, 2007

we have the collection...

I recently have had excellent conversations with some local Braves fans here in Valdosta. They asked me for some of my opinions on different issues. I guess most bloggers would call this a "Q and A" but I don't really like that for a few reasons that will not be shared. Anyways, here is some of what I shared:

Chris, what's with Cox using pitchers to pinch-hit lately? He hit with Chuckie James in that game you went to, and he used Jo-Jo last night. Any thoughts?

Well, right now the Braves are carrying 13 pitchers. Since they have to start 8 position players, that leaves Bobby with only 4 bench players to use each game. Two of those 4 bench players are Chris Woodward and Scott Thorman (when lefties start). Keeping that in mind, sending Chuckie James to the plate doesn't really seem like a bad idea when he could be sending one of those two out-machines.

On a more serious note, four bench players is not a lot. Considering the fact that Bobby has always been extremely conservative towards hitting with his backup catcher, one could make a strong case that it is only 3 bench players. It would probably be in Cox's best interest to add an extra position player and send down a pitcher...especially if he is hardly going to use Joey Devine. But really, I don't have a problem with him pinch hitting with a pitcher (unless it's a clear RBI situation) just so that he doesn't have to burn a bench player. But then again, if that's Cox's logic, why doesn't he just use the relief pitcher that is in to hit?

What roster changes will the Braves see before the Trade Deadline?

Well, I'm no soothsayer, but if I were a Braves fan (duh, I am) I wouldn't fall in love with Salty. I'm not on the inside, but I'd be willing to guess that because we have Salty, teams would rather do business with us. Salty is just such a special prospect that the Braves will most likely use to bring in some help. I would like to hit on a few rumors I have heard.

Salty for Texiera: I like Mark Texiera and I think he would be a good fit for the Braves at first base. However, I'm against this trade. It's just the fact that if we were to play Salty full time at 1B, we'd probably see around 70% of Texiera's production at a significantly lesser price.

A prospect package for one of the White Sox starters (not Buerhle): eh. I'm kinda so-so on this one. I don't like Contreras but Vazquez (ERA+ 120) and Garland (ERA+ 118) are decent. The problem is that both of these pitchers have contracts that list pretty significant raises in the 2008 season (Both are due around 12 mil in 2008). It's a raise we could afford if we don't resign Andruw and use that money, but I think I'd rather have Andruw.

Salty for one of the Pirates starters: I'm more of a fan of this one, provided we sign an extension for the pitcher. The Pirates have made it clear that they don't want Escobar, they want Salty. They like their middle infield (for some odd reason), but they want to upgrade their catcher spot (that one makes sense, Ronny Paulino wouldn't cut it for me either.) Again, I'm not on the inside, but I'd be willing to bet that the reason we haven't seen a Salty for Snell deal already is because Snell is a FA after the end of this season. And the Braves front office does not want to trade Salty for a one year rental (a decision I agree with). All of these Pirate pitchers are Free Agents after this season.

Bottomline is this. I can guarantee you two things will happen:

1. We're gonna try to get another starter.
2. we're gonna pay way too much for him. Starting pitching is just that expensive and rare these days.

If the Braves are unable to acquire a Starter, are they in trouble? What needs to happen if they don't?

After watching Kyle Davies last night, my short answer is YES! They are doomed if we keep having to see him as our 4th-5th (whichever one you want to call him, I've heard both too many times) starter. But more realistically, there are a few things I would like to see done that I think would increase our chances. They mostly regard Cox's playing time decisions.

For instance, has anybody noticed that if Matt Diaz had enough at-bats, he would be LEADING THE NL IN AVERAGE! Yet he's still not starting? Why is it that Bobby won't give him a chance? I mean, if Diaz is playing over his head, at least give him a chance to prove that he ISN'T a .318 career hitter. If you can't tell, I really like the guy. Unfortunately, I don't think very many people like him. I hear two common criticisms towards him:

First, people bash him because he doesn't take walks. My response: so? I understand that avg. isn't everything, but the guy is hitting .343. Doesn't that justify not talking walks? he still has a higher on base% than Salty, Frenchy, McCann, and Andruw without the walks. I say he's earned his starting job even if he doesn't take walks. If his average starts to dip, then I'll probably change my mind, but .343 batting average is what it is.

The other criticism I hear from only a few people is that he only hits singles. Ok, now I'm a little confused. Did I miss something? Since when has hitting singles become a bad thing? The Braves have hit 95 homers as a team, 5th in the NL. The Braves lineup is full of players who can hit the long ball, whats wrong with having someone on base getting singles for the boppers to drive in?

The LA Dodgers this year are not only leading the west, but have a "mosquito bite" attack. As in, they single you to death, without much of a threat for the long ball. They are neck and neck with the Braves in runs this season.

Coincidently, the people who don't like Diaz because he only his singles are the same people who are pushing for Salty to have the full-time first base job, when Salty is a singles only hitter from the left side (for the record, I'd love for salty to have the full-time 1b job, bring on the singles! Perhaps I might even get gutsy and push for Salty to drop the switch hitting thing, as we see an almost .200 difference in his SLG%. Perhaps that will even out with more at-bats, but hey, anything but Thorman).

Anyways, I hope I haven't over beaten my point, but I feel like Diaz has earned a starting job...even more so with the decline of Willie Harris lately. I'm open to be educated if I'm missing something, but Diaz looks startable to me.

but Diaz isn't the only one getting the shaft. The Braves also have have a second baseman who is 2nd among NL 2 sackers in OPS, yet still without a full-time job. Poor Kelly Johnson. He, like Diaz, has earned his spot. but it's hard to say what to do with Yunel Escobar. I think he needs to stay on the team (Simply because chipper needs a good backup) and get several ABs (so he stays sharp and we can showcase our trade bait), but it's hard to figure out how. Chipper and Edgar's bat need to stay where they are, and KJ is the second best offensive second baseman. Between rotating him among those 3 for an occasional day off and late game substitutions, I think we can find enough ABs for him.

The final thing that needs to happen for a more successful second half is our pitching management. I hate to say it, but we've probably lost a few games because of our pitching management. We bring the wrong guys for the wrong situations, we let them go too long, don't let them go long enough sometimes. It's embarassing. If someone wants to tell me why Oscar Villarreal hasn't started a game this year, I'd love to hear it. I don't think Oscar is outstanding or anything, but there's no way anyone can convince me that Davies is a better option than villarreal.


anyways, It looks like a ended up venting more than actually answering the questions, but whatever. It's my blog, not yours.

Jenny's in TN, so I'm by myself this week. If anybody wants to hit me up for lunch/dinner plans just give me a buzz.

Peace!

1 comment:

John Wright said...

I agree that Diaz deserves a shot to prove that he can't hit .320+ on a regular basis. Sure, I would like to see more walks and power, but his OPS is adequate enough and his performance is probably more sustainable than Willie Harris' performance thus far. His splits also don't suggest that he'd struggle against righties, so there shouldn't be anything holding him back. It would be great to use Harris as a utility guy off the bench.

I'm not sold on Salty as a singles hitter from the left side, though. His splits this year are based on 130 PAs, which isn't really that much in the scheme of things. The difference in isolated power is pretty strong, but I'm not sure it's enough to be indicative of his true talent from that side. In 2006 at Mississippi, his OPS from the left side was only 8 points higher (.738 to .730), and he actually showed more power from the left side (.163 vs. .123 ISO). 2007 at Miss. was even more pronounced in the other direction, with a 1.121 OPS as a lefty (.695 SLG) and .755 as a righty (.409 SLG).

I'd wait on this decision until it becomes a pronounced effect over at least a whole season at the major league level. His overall performance over the last two years suggests that he's probably not that different from either side. You can check out minorleaguesplits.com if you want to look at those numbers. They only have splits for 2006 and 2007, though.

You're right about the Dodgers. They have some power (only 20 points lower than the Braves in ISO), but they do get a lot more singles. With Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the lineup, I suppose that's not surprising. It doesn't matter how you get your runs, as long as you get them, and it might not hurt the Braves to have some better average/on-base guys to balance out the lineup.

I'm also in total agreement on basically everything else here. I think the Braves will be moving aggressively for a starter, even if Salty is the price they have to pay. I'm also concerned about the 13-man pitching staff, and I think it could be managed better.

It's going to be an interesting second half, eh?