I know as a Braves fan I'm interested to see if Teixeira will play for the Braves tonight (he may not, because finalization has taken so long). But I encourage you to keep your eye on the Mets game 2nite. Glavine takes his first crack at the 300th win of his career. as I've already blogged about, this may be the last time we see this (especially since Randy Johnson might be done) due to the change in Starting Pitching over the past decade plus.
I'm in a tough situation. I'm a Braves fan and want my team to catch the Mets, but I'm also rooting for Glavine to reach the milestone. What should I do?
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Monday, July 30, 2007
My reaction to the Trade
Well, guess what team has very few prospects left? You guessed it! Your own Braves! Salty is a good hitter, but how much do you pay for a good hitter?
We gave up one of the better prospects in baseball as well as a young, stud SS and 2 pitching "prospects". This trade really makes me hope we re-sign him so we don't lose him after only 1.5 (or 1.3, whatever) yrs of service.
I don't need to say how I feel about it, I've already expressed my thoughts. But I don't think it was a total loss since we also got some bullpen help from Texas as well as Octavio Dotel from the royals.
Man, if we keep doing business with the royals, we will be in great shape! They wanted Tony Pena jr and now they wanted Kyle Davies. I expected Dotel's price to be higher, especially considering I wouldn't have cared if Davies stayed in the minors and never pitched for the braves again, but I don't have to worry about that now.
There are rumors that we will address Starting Pitching, something that I thought we should have been doing before addressing 1B and RP. I'll probably stick very close to a computer tomorrow.
We gave up one of the better prospects in baseball as well as a young, stud SS and 2 pitching "prospects". This trade really makes me hope we re-sign him so we don't lose him after only 1.5 (or 1.3, whatever) yrs of service.
I don't need to say how I feel about it, I've already expressed my thoughts. But I don't think it was a total loss since we also got some bullpen help from Texas as well as Octavio Dotel from the royals.
Man, if we keep doing business with the royals, we will be in great shape! They wanted Tony Pena jr and now they wanted Kyle Davies. I expected Dotel's price to be higher, especially considering I wouldn't have cared if Davies stayed in the minors and never pitched for the braves again, but I don't have to worry about that now.
There are rumors that we will address Starting Pitching, something that I thought we should have been doing before addressing 1B and RP. I'll probably stick very close to a computer tomorrow.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Google Desktop...
Has anyone tried Google desktop? I've read some reviews of it, but I'm still not sure if I want to give it a download. If anybody has any input if they like Google desktop hit me a comment, slap me an email, punch me a phone call, whatever. Just wonderin'.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Throw in the towel...
WARNING - if you are an optimist, please do no continue reading. I'm in kind of a pessimist mood right now.
_______________________________________
Who are we kidding. The Braves are done. I know I hear all of this garbage about "we aren't mathematically eliminated yet, but let's face it, we're done. We should be sellers this weekend and not buyers.
The honest to goodness truth is that if you take away the first two weeks of the season, the Braves are a .500 at best team. They've been playing that way ever since the third week of the season.
It's becoming more and more apparent. Everytime I begin to feel good about this team, they get swept/embarassed and shatter my hopes in the process.
I left this weekend for a youth rally in Dothan, AL and while I was gone, the Braves lost TWO, nope not one but TWO games in extra innings.
What's the point of this Teixeira deal anyways? How can he help this team? What's the point of upgrading your 1B position from horrible to average (b/c that's what Tex is when wearing his away jersey) when your bullpen can't even keep you in the game. The 2006 Braves have returned!
But before you say, "Calm down, Chris, the Mets haven't been lights out either against those bad teams they're playing" let me respond by saying this:
Mets? Who cares about the Mets. We are to the point now where we need to watch the Phillies more than the Mets. we are in THIRD place, not second. The Battle for second place is the one to watch. When the Mets get Pedro back, they're probably going to pick up the pace a wii bit.
This is pathetic. New trade deadline plan: Trade Andruw for prospects, trade Wickman for prospects, fill the farm with young studs and hope for a good 2008. It's over.
________________________________
Ok, that feels better. I need an advil, bye!
_______________________________________
Who are we kidding. The Braves are done. I know I hear all of this garbage about "we aren't mathematically eliminated yet, but let's face it, we're done. We should be sellers this weekend and not buyers.
The honest to goodness truth is that if you take away the first two weeks of the season, the Braves are a .500 at best team. They've been playing that way ever since the third week of the season.
It's becoming more and more apparent. Everytime I begin to feel good about this team, they get swept/embarassed and shatter my hopes in the process.
I left this weekend for a youth rally in Dothan, AL and while I was gone, the Braves lost TWO, nope not one but TWO games in extra innings.
What's the point of this Teixeira deal anyways? How can he help this team? What's the point of upgrading your 1B position from horrible to average (b/c that's what Tex is when wearing his away jersey) when your bullpen can't even keep you in the game. The 2006 Braves have returned!
But before you say, "Calm down, Chris, the Mets haven't been lights out either against those bad teams they're playing" let me respond by saying this:
Mets? Who cares about the Mets. We are to the point now where we need to watch the Phillies more than the Mets. we are in THIRD place, not second. The Battle for second place is the one to watch. When the Mets get Pedro back, they're probably going to pick up the pace a wii bit.
This is pathetic. New trade deadline plan: Trade Andruw for prospects, trade Wickman for prospects, fill the farm with young studs and hope for a good 2008. It's over.
________________________________
Ok, that feels better. I need an advil, bye!
Thursday, July 26, 2007
More simpsonized fun...
Yes, it's true, I can't get over how addicting this is. Deadspin has a nice link featuring a contest between the best-looking simpsonized Red Sox player.
This got my wheels turning. I wonder what a juiced up Bonds would look like on the simpsons. so I put him in the machine and here is the results:
I've had lots of fun simpsonizing myself as well as Jenny.
Simpsonize Me has been running very slowly the past several days, probably due to increased popularity. It's still fun and worth it though.
the movie comes out tomorrow! It's gonna be insane!
P.S. I don't want to keep hitting on the same topic, but does anybody else have the feeling we are going to give up way too much for Teixeira?
This got my wheels turning. I wonder what a juiced up Bonds would look like on the simpsons. so I put him in the machine and here is the results:
I've had lots of fun simpsonizing myself as well as Jenny.
Simpsonize Me has been running very slowly the past several days, probably due to increased popularity. It's still fun and worth it though.
the movie comes out tomorrow! It's gonna be insane!
P.S. I don't want to keep hitting on the same topic, but does anybody else have the feeling we are going to give up way too much for Teixeira?
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
I'm getting Nervous...
I think a trade is gonna happen soon. I can't really give a good reason why, I just have this feeling....7 days left
Since the arrival of Julio Franco, Cox absolutely refuses to play Salty. Yesterday Woodward came in to pinch run for Franco...BUT WOODWARD STAYED IN TO PLAY 1B. Why not let Woodward run the bases (which might be all he's good for) then let Salty man the field? I like to give bobby the benefit of the doubt but he has this thing about not playing certain guys.
We should probably just trade Salty and Devine. Bobby isn't going to play them anyways, so why not just swap em for somebody? What if we just traded those two for an entirely new bullpen. I think Bobby Cox needs some more guys to overwork.
I'm still not sold on Texiera. If you look at his Home/Away splits you notice that he isn't the reliable hitter he needs to be when playing away from that softball field in Texas.
In other news, more Bonds/Balco mumbo jumbo.
I can't really think of anything else to say, so I'm gonna eat lunch now.
Since the arrival of Julio Franco, Cox absolutely refuses to play Salty. Yesterday Woodward came in to pinch run for Franco...BUT WOODWARD STAYED IN TO PLAY 1B. Why not let Woodward run the bases (which might be all he's good for) then let Salty man the field? I like to give bobby the benefit of the doubt but he has this thing about not playing certain guys.
We should probably just trade Salty and Devine. Bobby isn't going to play them anyways, so why not just swap em for somebody? What if we just traded those two for an entirely new bullpen. I think Bobby Cox needs some more guys to overwork.
I'm still not sold on Texiera. If you look at his Home/Away splits you notice that he isn't the reliable hitter he needs to be when playing away from that softball field in Texas.
In other news, more Bonds/Balco mumbo jumbo.
I can't really think of anything else to say, so I'm gonna eat lunch now.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
I don't care...
about Lohan's dui arrest. I wish there was something to listen to on the news besides this headline hog. Is it bad that I find myself actually avoiding the news everytime I know double L is in the news?
Somebody needs to tell her that with great power comes great responsibility.
Countdown till simpsons movie...2 more full days. Untill then...here's a simpsonized pic of Jenny:
I'm not sure what's going on...but for some reason Google reader has been extremely slow on the feeds from my blogger...it doesn't really do it from any other of my subscriptions, just mine for some reason. Just thought I'd warn you. any body reading from GR could possibly be a couple days behind.
-cp
Somebody needs to tell her that with great power comes great responsibility.
Countdown till simpsons movie...2 more full days. Untill then...here's a simpsonized pic of Jenny:
I'm not sure what's going on...but for some reason Google reader has been extremely slow on the feeds from my blogger...it doesn't really do it from any other of my subscriptions, just mine for some reason. Just thought I'd warn you. any body reading from GR could possibly be a couple days behind.
-cp
Saturday, July 21, 2007
what would I look like as a simpsons character?
That is a question that was recently answered because I finally simpsonized myself. This is something I've been meaning to try out for awhile but haven't' had the chance.
It's a pretty neat little thing. I guess mine kind of looks like me. the picture I submitted was one that was taken when I hadn't shaved in awhile, so my Simpsons character is more scruffy looking than I represent.
Here is what I would look like as a simpsons character (that hasn't shaved in awhile):
If you haven't simpsonized yourself yet, give it a shot! It doesn't take long at all and is good for some laughs.
It's a pretty neat little thing. I guess mine kind of looks like me. the picture I submitted was one that was taken when I hadn't shaved in awhile, so my Simpsons character is more scruffy looking than I represent.
Here is what I would look like as a simpsons character (that hasn't shaved in awhile):
If you haven't simpsonized yourself yet, give it a shot! It doesn't take long at all and is good for some laughs.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Two different Wickmans?
I'll be honest...I'm in such shock right now that I have had a hard time trying to figure out how to put this in words right now. Kudos to Matt for pointing this out to me, he gets credit for this blog post (Thanks, Matt!)
Apparently there are two different Bob Wickmans. I can't believe I hadn't already noticed this, but look at his Home/Away Splits.
That is the biggest difference between two splits that I can recall off the top of my head, thanks Matt for pointing that out to me. Maybe we should just not let Wickman get on the plane when we travel.
Apparently there are two different Bob Wickmans. I can't believe I hadn't already noticed this, but look at his Home/Away Splits.
That is the biggest difference between two splits that I can recall off the top of my head, thanks Matt for pointing that out to me. Maybe we should just not let Wickman get on the plane when we travel.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
we have the collection...
I recently have had excellent conversations with some local Braves fans here in Valdosta. They asked me for some of my opinions on different issues. I guess most bloggers would call this a "Q and A" but I don't really like that for a few reasons that will not be shared. Anyways, here is some of what I shared:
Chris, what's with Cox using pitchers to pinch-hit lately? He hit with Chuckie James in that game you went to, and he used Jo-Jo last night. Any thoughts?
Well, right now the Braves are carrying 13 pitchers. Since they have to start 8 position players, that leaves Bobby with only 4 bench players to use each game. Two of those 4 bench players are Chris Woodward and Scott Thorman (when lefties start). Keeping that in mind, sending Chuckie James to the plate doesn't really seem like a bad idea when he could be sending one of those two out-machines.
On a more serious note, four bench players is not a lot. Considering the fact that Bobby has always been extremely conservative towards hitting with his backup catcher, one could make a strong case that it is only 3 bench players. It would probably be in Cox's best interest to add an extra position player and send down a pitcher...especially if he is hardly going to use Joey Devine. But really, I don't have a problem with him pinch hitting with a pitcher (unless it's a clear RBI situation) just so that he doesn't have to burn a bench player. But then again, if that's Cox's logic, why doesn't he just use the relief pitcher that is in to hit?
What roster changes will the Braves see before the Trade Deadline?
Well, I'm no soothsayer, but if I were a Braves fan (duh, I am) I wouldn't fall in love with Salty. I'm not on the inside, but I'd be willing to guess that because we have Salty, teams would rather do business with us. Salty is just such a special prospect that the Braves will most likely use to bring in some help. I would like to hit on a few rumors I have heard.
Salty for Texiera: I like Mark Texiera and I think he would be a good fit for the Braves at first base. However, I'm against this trade. It's just the fact that if we were to play Salty full time at 1B, we'd probably see around 70% of Texiera's production at a significantly lesser price.
A prospect package for one of the White Sox starters (not Buerhle): eh. I'm kinda so-so on this one. I don't like Contreras but Vazquez (ERA+ 120) and Garland (ERA+ 118) are decent. The problem is that both of these pitchers have contracts that list pretty significant raises in the 2008 season (Both are due around 12 mil in 2008). It's a raise we could afford if we don't resign Andruw and use that money, but I think I'd rather have Andruw.
Salty for one of the Pirates starters: I'm more of a fan of this one, provided we sign an extension for the pitcher. The Pirates have made it clear that they don't want Escobar, they want Salty. They like their middle infield (for some odd reason), but they want to upgrade their catcher spot (that one makes sense, Ronny Paulino wouldn't cut it for me either.) Again, I'm not on the inside, but I'd be willing to bet that the reason we haven't seen a Salty for Snell deal already is because Snell is a FA after the end of this season. And the Braves front office does not want to trade Salty for a one year rental (a decision I agree with). All of these Pirate pitchers are Free Agents after this season.
Bottomline is this. I can guarantee you two things will happen:
1. We're gonna try to get another starter.
2. we're gonna pay way too much for him. Starting pitching is just that expensive and rare these days.
If the Braves are unable to acquire a Starter, are they in trouble? What needs to happen if they don't?
After watching Kyle Davies last night, my short answer is YES! They are doomed if we keep having to see him as our 4th-5th (whichever one you want to call him, I've heard both too many times) starter. But more realistically, there are a few things I would like to see done that I think would increase our chances. They mostly regard Cox's playing time decisions.
For instance, has anybody noticed that if Matt Diaz had enough at-bats, he would be LEADING THE NL IN AVERAGE! Yet he's still not starting? Why is it that Bobby won't give him a chance? I mean, if Diaz is playing over his head, at least give him a chance to prove that he ISN'T a .318 career hitter. If you can't tell, I really like the guy. Unfortunately, I don't think very many people like him. I hear two common criticisms towards him:
First, people bash him because he doesn't take walks. My response: so? I understand that avg. isn't everything, but the guy is hitting .343. Doesn't that justify not talking walks? he still has a higher on base% than Salty, Frenchy, McCann, and Andruw without the walks. I say he's earned his starting job even if he doesn't take walks. If his average starts to dip, then I'll probably change my mind, but .343 batting average is what it is.
The other criticism I hear from only a few people is that he only hits singles. Ok, now I'm a little confused. Did I miss something? Since when has hitting singles become a bad thing? The Braves have hit 95 homers as a team, 5th in the NL. The Braves lineup is full of players who can hit the long ball, whats wrong with having someone on base getting singles for the boppers to drive in?
The LA Dodgers this year are not only leading the west, but have a "mosquito bite" attack. As in, they single you to death, without much of a threat for the long ball. They are neck and neck with the Braves in runs this season.
Coincidently, the people who don't like Diaz because he only his singles are the same people who are pushing for Salty to have the full-time first base job, when Salty is a singles only hitter from the left side (for the record, I'd love for salty to have the full-time 1b job, bring on the singles! Perhaps I might even get gutsy and push for Salty to drop the switch hitting thing, as we see an almost .200 difference in his SLG%. Perhaps that will even out with more at-bats, but hey, anything but Thorman).
Anyways, I hope I haven't over beaten my point, but I feel like Diaz has earned a starting job...even more so with the decline of Willie Harris lately. I'm open to be educated if I'm missing something, but Diaz looks startable to me.
but Diaz isn't the only one getting the shaft. The Braves also have have a second baseman who is 2nd among NL 2 sackers in OPS, yet still without a full-time job. Poor Kelly Johnson. He, like Diaz, has earned his spot. but it's hard to say what to do with Yunel Escobar. I think he needs to stay on the team (Simply because chipper needs a good backup) and get several ABs (so he stays sharp and we can showcase our trade bait), but it's hard to figure out how. Chipper and Edgar's bat need to stay where they are, and KJ is the second best offensive second baseman. Between rotating him among those 3 for an occasional day off and late game substitutions, I think we can find enough ABs for him.
The final thing that needs to happen for a more successful second half is our pitching management. I hate to say it, but we've probably lost a few games because of our pitching management. We bring the wrong guys for the wrong situations, we let them go too long, don't let them go long enough sometimes. It's embarassing. If someone wants to tell me why Oscar Villarreal hasn't started a game this year, I'd love to hear it. I don't think Oscar is outstanding or anything, but there's no way anyone can convince me that Davies is a better option than villarreal.
anyways, It looks like a ended up venting more than actually answering the questions, but whatever. It's my blog, not yours.
Jenny's in TN, so I'm by myself this week. If anybody wants to hit me up for lunch/dinner plans just give me a buzz.
Peace!
Chris, what's with Cox using pitchers to pinch-hit lately? He hit with Chuckie James in that game you went to, and he used Jo-Jo last night. Any thoughts?
Well, right now the Braves are carrying 13 pitchers. Since they have to start 8 position players, that leaves Bobby with only 4 bench players to use each game. Two of those 4 bench players are Chris Woodward and Scott Thorman (when lefties start). Keeping that in mind, sending Chuckie James to the plate doesn't really seem like a bad idea when he could be sending one of those two out-machines.
On a more serious note, four bench players is not a lot. Considering the fact that Bobby has always been extremely conservative towards hitting with his backup catcher, one could make a strong case that it is only 3 bench players. It would probably be in Cox's best interest to add an extra position player and send down a pitcher...especially if he is hardly going to use Joey Devine. But really, I don't have a problem with him pinch hitting with a pitcher (unless it's a clear RBI situation) just so that he doesn't have to burn a bench player. But then again, if that's Cox's logic, why doesn't he just use the relief pitcher that is in to hit?
What roster changes will the Braves see before the Trade Deadline?
Well, I'm no soothsayer, but if I were a Braves fan (duh, I am) I wouldn't fall in love with Salty. I'm not on the inside, but I'd be willing to guess that because we have Salty, teams would rather do business with us. Salty is just such a special prospect that the Braves will most likely use to bring in some help. I would like to hit on a few rumors I have heard.
Salty for Texiera: I like Mark Texiera and I think he would be a good fit for the Braves at first base. However, I'm against this trade. It's just the fact that if we were to play Salty full time at 1B, we'd probably see around 70% of Texiera's production at a significantly lesser price.
A prospect package for one of the White Sox starters (not Buerhle): eh. I'm kinda so-so on this one. I don't like Contreras but Vazquez (ERA+ 120) and Garland (ERA+ 118) are decent. The problem is that both of these pitchers have contracts that list pretty significant raises in the 2008 season (Both are due around 12 mil in 2008). It's a raise we could afford if we don't resign Andruw and use that money, but I think I'd rather have Andruw.
Salty for one of the Pirates starters: I'm more of a fan of this one, provided we sign an extension for the pitcher. The Pirates have made it clear that they don't want Escobar, they want Salty. They like their middle infield (for some odd reason), but they want to upgrade their catcher spot (that one makes sense, Ronny Paulino wouldn't cut it for me either.) Again, I'm not on the inside, but I'd be willing to bet that the reason we haven't seen a Salty for Snell deal already is because Snell is a FA after the end of this season. And the Braves front office does not want to trade Salty for a one year rental (a decision I agree with). All of these Pirate pitchers are Free Agents after this season.
Bottomline is this. I can guarantee you two things will happen:
1. We're gonna try to get another starter.
2. we're gonna pay way too much for him. Starting pitching is just that expensive and rare these days.
If the Braves are unable to acquire a Starter, are they in trouble? What needs to happen if they don't?
After watching Kyle Davies last night, my short answer is YES! They are doomed if we keep having to see him as our 4th-5th (whichever one you want to call him, I've heard both too many times) starter. But more realistically, there are a few things I would like to see done that I think would increase our chances. They mostly regard Cox's playing time decisions.
For instance, has anybody noticed that if Matt Diaz had enough at-bats, he would be LEADING THE NL IN AVERAGE! Yet he's still not starting? Why is it that Bobby won't give him a chance? I mean, if Diaz is playing over his head, at least give him a chance to prove that he ISN'T a .318 career hitter. If you can't tell, I really like the guy. Unfortunately, I don't think very many people like him. I hear two common criticisms towards him:
First, people bash him because he doesn't take walks. My response: so? I understand that avg. isn't everything, but the guy is hitting .343. Doesn't that justify not talking walks? he still has a higher on base% than Salty, Frenchy, McCann, and Andruw without the walks. I say he's earned his starting job even if he doesn't take walks. If his average starts to dip, then I'll probably change my mind, but .343 batting average is what it is.
The other criticism I hear from only a few people is that he only hits singles. Ok, now I'm a little confused. Did I miss something? Since when has hitting singles become a bad thing? The Braves have hit 95 homers as a team, 5th in the NL. The Braves lineup is full of players who can hit the long ball, whats wrong with having someone on base getting singles for the boppers to drive in?
The LA Dodgers this year are not only leading the west, but have a "mosquito bite" attack. As in, they single you to death, without much of a threat for the long ball. They are neck and neck with the Braves in runs this season.
Coincidently, the people who don't like Diaz because he only his singles are the same people who are pushing for Salty to have the full-time first base job, when Salty is a singles only hitter from the left side (for the record, I'd love for salty to have the full-time 1b job, bring on the singles! Perhaps I might even get gutsy and push for Salty to drop the switch hitting thing, as we see an almost .200 difference in his SLG%. Perhaps that will even out with more at-bats, but hey, anything but Thorman).
Anyways, I hope I haven't over beaten my point, but I feel like Diaz has earned a starting job...even more so with the decline of Willie Harris lately. I'm open to be educated if I'm missing something, but Diaz looks startable to me.
but Diaz isn't the only one getting the shaft. The Braves also have have a second baseman who is 2nd among NL 2 sackers in OPS, yet still without a full-time job. Poor Kelly Johnson. He, like Diaz, has earned his spot. but it's hard to say what to do with Yunel Escobar. I think he needs to stay on the team (Simply because chipper needs a good backup) and get several ABs (so he stays sharp and we can showcase our trade bait), but it's hard to figure out how. Chipper and Edgar's bat need to stay where they are, and KJ is the second best offensive second baseman. Between rotating him among those 3 for an occasional day off and late game substitutions, I think we can find enough ABs for him.
The final thing that needs to happen for a more successful second half is our pitching management. I hate to say it, but we've probably lost a few games because of our pitching management. We bring the wrong guys for the wrong situations, we let them go too long, don't let them go long enough sometimes. It's embarassing. If someone wants to tell me why Oscar Villarreal hasn't started a game this year, I'd love to hear it. I don't think Oscar is outstanding or anything, but there's no way anyone can convince me that Davies is a better option than villarreal.
anyways, It looks like a ended up venting more than actually answering the questions, but whatever. It's my blog, not yours.
Jenny's in TN, so I'm by myself this week. If anybody wants to hit me up for lunch/dinner plans just give me a buzz.
Peace!
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Milestones - Pt. 2
It took me awhile but here it finally is. Let me begin part 2 with a quote from myself-
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
The Last time...
Just when you thought I was done with my ranting...I did some more writing:
The Last time the NL won the All-Star game...
The Dallas Cowboys won their third super bowl in 4 years.
The Summer Olympics were held in Atlanta.
The O.J. Simpson civil trial began.
Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in the U.S. Presidential Election.
The Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation included Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Jason Schmidt.
I began 7th grade and was a green belt in Tae kwon do.
Wow, it's been a long time since the NL won...
The Last time the NL won the All-Star game...
The Dallas Cowboys won their third super bowl in 4 years.
The Summer Olympics were held in Atlanta.
The O.J. Simpson civil trial began.
Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in the U.S. Presidential Election.
The Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation included Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Jason Schmidt.
I began 7th grade and was a green belt in Tae kwon do.
Wow, it's been a long time since the NL won...
Allstar weekend/ Death to LaRussa
Wow, that was probably the worse homerun derby ever! How many balls were hit into the Cove, like 2? The righties dominated even though they were at a disadvantage. Still, it was an incredibly boring event, nobody had any monster rounds or anything. Call me crazy, but I've always found the HR derby a little on the boring side. Watching the game is far more interesting than watching batting practice.
The AS game itself, was actually an excellent game, although I'm not pleased with the outcome. This game was by far the best all star game we've had in awhile. It was close the whole way (and didn't end in a tie), had brilliant pitching moments, brilliant hitting performances, and it even had a little controversy there at the end regarding LaRussa/Pujols.
Hooray, I found another item to add to my "Why I hate LaRussa" list. Think about it, why not pinch hit with Pujols? If you missed it, Let's relive the moment shall we?
The bases are Loaded in the 9th. Hardy is on 3rd. D. Lee is on 2nd. Hudson is on 1st.
Coming to the plate: Aaron Rowand.
Still sitting on the Bench: Hurricane Albert Pujols.
Of course, Larussa stuck with Rowand and the NL blew their chance. Why would Larussa not go with Pujols, HIS OWN PLAYER!!!!! Who would you rather go with, Rowand or Pujols? Pujols is my choice.
But then It came to me. I know exactly why LaRussa didn't hit for them...because homefield advantage doesn't mean anything to his Cardinals. Oh yeah, that's right. Tony just stuck it to the NL and gave the AL Home field because his cardinals won't be in the postseason. Good grief, thanks Tony.
I realize this probably won't be the case this year (as much as I wish it was), but if the Braves are in Game 7 of the World series they will be playing at an away park and I will know exactly who I will be thinking of during that game, that's right, mr. Larussa himself.
OK, I apologize for that Larussa Rant. I will now go back to working on my Lesson.
UPDATE: Milestones Pt 2 is almost done.
The AS game itself, was actually an excellent game, although I'm not pleased with the outcome. This game was by far the best all star game we've had in awhile. It was close the whole way (and didn't end in a tie), had brilliant pitching moments, brilliant hitting performances, and it even had a little controversy there at the end regarding LaRussa/Pujols.
Hooray, I found another item to add to my "Why I hate LaRussa" list. Think about it, why not pinch hit with Pujols? If you missed it, Let's relive the moment shall we?
The bases are Loaded in the 9th. Hardy is on 3rd. D. Lee is on 2nd. Hudson is on 1st.
Coming to the plate: Aaron Rowand.
Still sitting on the Bench: Hurricane Albert Pujols.
Of course, Larussa stuck with Rowand and the NL blew their chance. Why would Larussa not go with Pujols, HIS OWN PLAYER!!!!! Who would you rather go with, Rowand or Pujols? Pujols is my choice.
But then It came to me. I know exactly why LaRussa didn't hit for them...because homefield advantage doesn't mean anything to his Cardinals. Oh yeah, that's right. Tony just stuck it to the NL and gave the AL Home field because his cardinals won't be in the postseason. Good grief, thanks Tony.
I realize this probably won't be the case this year (as much as I wish it was), but if the Braves are in Game 7 of the World series they will be playing at an away park and I will know exactly who I will be thinking of during that game, that's right, mr. Larussa himself.
OK, I apologize for that Larussa Rant. I will now go back to working on my Lesson.
UPDATE: Milestones Pt 2 is almost done.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
Milestones - Pt. 2 (HRs)
It took me awhile but here it finally is. Let me begin part 2 with a quote from myself-
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much.
It's true. Not that he won't break the record...but that, unlike pitchers, so many are on pace to do so. It is a complete reversal. Pitching milestones are getting harder, hitting milestones are getting easier. We keep seeing the stat "youngest player to..." over and over again.
At the End of this season, Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to have reached 500 (assuming he hits 6 HRs in the second half). But AROD is not the only one. These record's keep being broken.
Albert Pujols is the youngest player to reach 250 homers. But he is also being shadowed...
Ryan Howard was the fastest to reach 100 HRs.
I'm sure this process will keep repeating itself until we see a big, big change ( a change that I don't think will ever happen).
So back to the original statement. Why should we not worry about Bonds breaking Aaron's record? Simple, it'll won't hold very long.
I've argued that after Glavine reaches 300 wins and possibly Johnson...we probably won't see anybody else reach that milestone. However, finding those on pace to reach the 700 club was a bit easier.
Alex Rodriguez - Age 31 - 494 Homers
494 Homers at his age? Wow! Is he going to end up with 900?
Andruw Jones - Age 30 - 357 Dingers
His 162 Career avg of 34 should perhaps be a bit higher, but he's still on pace to reach the 700 club if he plays into his early 40s.
Vladimir Guerrero - Age 31 - 352 Jacks
It'll be an interesting race between him and Andruw. Guerrero has a higher 162 game avg (37 Hrs/162 Gm) but also is a few behind him and a year older. Should be a fun race.
Albert Pujols - Age 27 - 266 Bombs
His 162 game avg is in the low 40s, as is Arods. Also similar to Arod, Pujols has a shot at 900 if he plays in his low 40s and keeps that pace.
Miguel Cabrera - Age 24 - 122 Trots
His 162 game avg is extremely low (It's pretty high standards if 31 Hrs seems is low). He'll need to either up that pace or play till Bond's age.
Ryan Howard - Age 27 - 103 Rips
He's old for that number of Homers. The only reason he's really on this list is because his 162 game avg is 50 Hrs, a number which I doubt he'll keep up...but I've been surprised before.
Well, what do we learn? 300 wins is almost impossible now. 700 seems quite doable. Sure makes the 500 club seem lame, a club that used to be quite honorable. So what's happening? What's with the decline of pitching and rise of hitting? Is it really possible that Bonds will be 4th or 5th on the all time list when these folks reach their 40s? Could be, who knows.
There are more genius ways to go about this than I am taking. I realize that. It is just something I wish to address to communicate the current state of MLB.
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Man vs. Wild
I don't know how many of you have seen this show...I hate to admit but I have watched it on occasion (although I wouldn't say I enjoy watching it). Anyways...a man parachutes from a helicopter into all kinds of interesting territories and shows his audience how to survive in that particular surrounding. I'm not convinced that it is 100% authentic but it has its moments.
Here is a clip of him surviving in Africa (I hope you aren't hungry):
Still writing Milestones Pt. 2...I'll put it up when I'm finished.
Here is a clip of him surviving in Africa (I hope you aren't hungry):
Still writing Milestones Pt. 2...I'll put it up when I'm finished.
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Milestones - Pt. 1 (Wins)
So much talk about Bonds. So much talk about Clemens. So much talk about Biggio. So much talk about Glavine. Give me a break. What is a sports fan supposed to watch on tv these days amidst so many dumb sports debating programs?
Yeah, yeah, Bonds is not far away from 755, Clemens won 350, Biggio hit his 3,000th and Glavine is sitting at 297 wins.
Let me give some advice. I'm not big on making bold predictions, so this is a rarity for me. But here it goes: When Glavine is on the mound going for win # 300 EVERYONE needs to be watching.
Why? Because it quite easily could NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! Yes, I really did just say that. You don't have to read it agian. Seriously, the days of pitchers making it to 300 wins are virtually over.
Right now, Glavine has 297 wins and Randy Johnson has 284 wins. Glavine is going to get to 300 in 2007, I don't think anyone is arguing that. Let's talk about Johnson...
At the age of 43 he has 284. I know 16 wins doesn't sound like much, but for Randy Johnson's situation he has a long way to go. His arm is getting old and wrinkly. He has only thrown 56 innings so far this season. If he wants to get to 300 then he is going to have to stay healthy.
But not just that, he is going to have to be lights out when he is on the mound. As a Starting Pitcher, it's going to be harder for him to get a win with the Diamondbacks than it was with the Yankees. He doesn't have the same offense behind him, and it shows.
Johnson has a shot, but I wouldn't be placing bets that he will do it quite yet.
After Glavine and Johnson...the next on our list to make it to 300 wins is...well....hmmm...oh, I give up, I just can't find one.
Going down the list of career wins here are active pitchers:
Mike Mussina - Age 38 - 243 Wins
Seems highly unlikely to me. 57 wins to go and his 162 game average is 16 wins. That's about 3.5 good, healthy years. I don't doubt he'll still be around 3.5 years from now but it's the healthy part that I'm doubting. He's had his fair share of injury problems and I'm sure those problems will only continue.
David Wells - Age 44 - 234 Wins
This one to me is a no brainer. He's 44 years old. If you're in the shape that Julio Franco is in then it is a something you might be able to accomplish...but if you've watched Wells on the mound lately you notice one thing: Wells is NOT in the shape that Julio Franco is in.
Jamie Moyer - Age 44 - 223 Wins
He's in better shape than Wells, but again, he's just too old.
Curt Schilling - Age 40 - 213 Wins
I was quite shocked when I first saw how far down the list Schilling is. Seems like Curt has been around forever (he pretty much has) and for him to only have 213 wins shocked me as much as it would shock me to watch Colonel Sanders eating a Big Mac. But nonetheless, his 162 game avg is just a 14-9 record. The beginning of his season was when he hurt his chances at 300. He had a 3 year spand (94-96) where he won only 18 games total (all three years) and not to mention the fact that he didn't really become a starter until his 5th year pitching. If you combine all of those factors plus mix in a few DL visits you wind up being just north of 200 wins.
As we continue going down the list we keep seeing pitchers who have no chance at 300:
Kevin Brown - Age 42 - 211 wins
Kenny Rogers - Age 42 - 209 wins
Pedro Martinez - Age 35 - 206 wins (His 162 game avg is 17-7, but the truth is close to half of his wins came during a 5-6 year peak unlike anyone has ever seen. Of this group of 4, he is the only one with a legitimate chance, but the word "legitimate" might be stretching it, along with the word "chance")
John Smoltz - Age 40 - 202 wins
And that's all of our pitchers that are north of 200 wins. To find someone who is on pace to get to 300 we have to dig way down the list to young studs such as:
C.C. Sabathia - Age 26- 93 wins
I like his chances the best. He's at an advantage in this group because he arguably had the best first 2 seasons in this group. He was at 20 wins by age 21. If he can win 7 more games in 2007 then he'll be a third of the way there at Age 26. If he can stay healthy he's golden.
Dontrelle Willis - Age 25 - 65 wins
If he mantains his 15 win avg for 15 more years (putting him at age 40) he'll be knocking on 300's door.
Jake Peavy - Age 26 - 66 wins
It'll be harder for Jacob Edward Peavy because he really didn't get a lot of wins his first couple years. He's only reached 15 wins once in his short career, but I'm sure that will change (possibly by the middle of August.) With a few more top heavy seasons such as 2007 he'll be doing himself a favor.
Josh Beckett - Age 27 - 68 wins
Now is when I start to kid with myself. Beckett doesn't really belong in this group. He's not really on pace for 300. He needs to be a few years younger to be on a reasonable pace. But that's mostly because in his 5 year Marlin Career he only totalled 41 wins. Still, if he has a Pedro Martinez like peak and if he can last till his mid 40s then 300 is accomplishable.
Carlos Zambrano - Age 26 - 74 wins
Similar to Peavy. He's good, but he needs to start getting more wins than his 14-9 avg. His tops is 16 wins and he's done that twice. If he gets his avg up a bit then his chances will increase (duh).
Mark Buerhle - Age 28 - 102 wins
Again, if you haven't noticed by now, I am stretching the term "on pace". These last few, Buerhle included, need to step it up some if they want to be "on pace". Buerhle is a third of the way there, but it took him a bit longer than it probably should. If he continues at his 162 game avg then he'll be sitting at about 270 wins at age 40. If he stays consistent, healthy, and can log in a some 20 win seasos to get his avg up, and if he pitches into his mid 40s, he may be in business. He's currently in contract extension/trade talks. It will help his cause if he is traded to an NL team (cough, cough, Atlanta) where he will probably get more wins.
Honorable Mention: Johan Santana (you could probably argue a better case for Johan than some others on this list. But this list is getting long and I'm tired of stretching "on pace" more and more.
Well that was my list of guys with the best chances at 300. I tried to keep this as simple as possible, using mostly Sean Foreman's 162 game avg. If you include other factors such as injury then guys like Zambrano and Willis are doomed. They do things with their shoulder tendons that don't look very comfortable and I'm sure their tendons will tell you the same thing. I see them having careers similar to Sandy Koufax...a lights out pitcher but had to walk away from baseball way too early because of injuries. I've already touched on one...let me provide 3 reasons why it is harder/virtually impossible to get to 300 these days:
Injuries
I'll be short on this one because I've already touched on it. If you factor in injuries among other things then it doesn't really look like any of these guys will make it to 300. ANY. Even Sabathia. When teams start leaning on their pitchers too much then arm problems will occur. It's not that they might occur, it's that they will.
Pitching Management
But there is another reason 300 wins seems virtually impossible for young pitchers now. It really is harder to get a win today than in the previous generations. Pitchers lasted through more innings. With lefty and righty specialists, set-up men, and closers...a starting pitchers job has changed. It has changed from "give me a complete game shutout" to "give me 5-6 good innings". Because most bullpens are below average wins are blown. These wins can add up. Because of this it is not uncommon to see relief pitchers with 7-8 wins...the same totals as a many 5th starters in a lot of cases.
Offensive Era
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much. Anyways, this is the decade of the homer. Forget small ball. Why steal a base when you can just trot around the diamond? Say what you want to about steriods and shorter mounds and no spitballs, but pitchers don't really stand a chance these days.
So, I'll conclude by returning where I began. Watch Glavine when he goes for his 300th win. If you miss it...hope and pray that Randy Johnson can last 16 more wins. Because after Johnson, there's a good chance it won't ever happen again. EVER.
Yeah, yeah, Bonds is not far away from 755, Clemens won 350, Biggio hit his 3,000th and Glavine is sitting at 297 wins.
Let me give some advice. I'm not big on making bold predictions, so this is a rarity for me. But here it goes: When Glavine is on the mound going for win # 300 EVERYONE needs to be watching.
Why? Because it quite easily could NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! Yes, I really did just say that. You don't have to read it agian. Seriously, the days of pitchers making it to 300 wins are virtually over.
Right now, Glavine has 297 wins and Randy Johnson has 284 wins. Glavine is going to get to 300 in 2007, I don't think anyone is arguing that. Let's talk about Johnson...
At the age of 43 he has 284. I know 16 wins doesn't sound like much, but for Randy Johnson's situation he has a long way to go. His arm is getting old and wrinkly. He has only thrown 56 innings so far this season. If he wants to get to 300 then he is going to have to stay healthy.
But not just that, he is going to have to be lights out when he is on the mound. As a Starting Pitcher, it's going to be harder for him to get a win with the Diamondbacks than it was with the Yankees. He doesn't have the same offense behind him, and it shows.
Johnson has a shot, but I wouldn't be placing bets that he will do it quite yet.
After Glavine and Johnson...the next on our list to make it to 300 wins is...well....hmmm...oh, I give up, I just can't find one.
Going down the list of career wins here are active pitchers:
Mike Mussina - Age 38 - 243 Wins
Seems highly unlikely to me. 57 wins to go and his 162 game average is 16 wins. That's about 3.5 good, healthy years. I don't doubt he'll still be around 3.5 years from now but it's the healthy part that I'm doubting. He's had his fair share of injury problems and I'm sure those problems will only continue.
David Wells - Age 44 - 234 Wins
This one to me is a no brainer. He's 44 years old. If you're in the shape that Julio Franco is in then it is a something you might be able to accomplish...but if you've watched Wells on the mound lately you notice one thing: Wells is NOT in the shape that Julio Franco is in.
Jamie Moyer - Age 44 - 223 Wins
He's in better shape than Wells, but again, he's just too old.
Curt Schilling - Age 40 - 213 Wins
I was quite shocked when I first saw how far down the list Schilling is. Seems like Curt has been around forever (he pretty much has) and for him to only have 213 wins shocked me as much as it would shock me to watch Colonel Sanders eating a Big Mac. But nonetheless, his 162 game avg is just a 14-9 record. The beginning of his season was when he hurt his chances at 300. He had a 3 year spand (94-96) where he won only 18 games total (all three years) and not to mention the fact that he didn't really become a starter until his 5th year pitching. If you combine all of those factors plus mix in a few DL visits you wind up being just north of 200 wins.
As we continue going down the list we keep seeing pitchers who have no chance at 300:
Kevin Brown - Age 42 - 211 wins
Kenny Rogers - Age 42 - 209 wins
Pedro Martinez - Age 35 - 206 wins (His 162 game avg is 17-7, but the truth is close to half of his wins came during a 5-6 year peak unlike anyone has ever seen. Of this group of 4, he is the only one with a legitimate chance, but the word "legitimate" might be stretching it, along with the word "chance")
John Smoltz - Age 40 - 202 wins
And that's all of our pitchers that are north of 200 wins. To find someone who is on pace to get to 300 we have to dig way down the list to young studs such as:
C.C. Sabathia - Age 26- 93 wins
I like his chances the best. He's at an advantage in this group because he arguably had the best first 2 seasons in this group. He was at 20 wins by age 21. If he can win 7 more games in 2007 then he'll be a third of the way there at Age 26. If he can stay healthy he's golden.
Dontrelle Willis - Age 25 - 65 wins
If he mantains his 15 win avg for 15 more years (putting him at age 40) he'll be knocking on 300's door.
Jake Peavy - Age 26 - 66 wins
It'll be harder for Jacob Edward Peavy because he really didn't get a lot of wins his first couple years. He's only reached 15 wins once in his short career, but I'm sure that will change (possibly by the middle of August.) With a few more top heavy seasons such as 2007 he'll be doing himself a favor.
Josh Beckett - Age 27 - 68 wins
Now is when I start to kid with myself. Beckett doesn't really belong in this group. He's not really on pace for 300. He needs to be a few years younger to be on a reasonable pace. But that's mostly because in his 5 year Marlin Career he only totalled 41 wins. Still, if he has a Pedro Martinez like peak and if he can last till his mid 40s then 300 is accomplishable.
Carlos Zambrano - Age 26 - 74 wins
Similar to Peavy. He's good, but he needs to start getting more wins than his 14-9 avg. His tops is 16 wins and he's done that twice. If he gets his avg up a bit then his chances will increase (duh).
Mark Buerhle - Age 28 - 102 wins
Again, if you haven't noticed by now, I am stretching the term "on pace". These last few, Buerhle included, need to step it up some if they want to be "on pace". Buerhle is a third of the way there, but it took him a bit longer than it probably should. If he continues at his 162 game avg then he'll be sitting at about 270 wins at age 40. If he stays consistent, healthy, and can log in a some 20 win seasos to get his avg up, and if he pitches into his mid 40s, he may be in business. He's currently in contract extension/trade talks. It will help his cause if he is traded to an NL team (cough, cough, Atlanta) where he will probably get more wins.
Honorable Mention: Johan Santana (you could probably argue a better case for Johan than some others on this list. But this list is getting long and I'm tired of stretching "on pace" more and more.
Well that was my list of guys with the best chances at 300. I tried to keep this as simple as possible, using mostly Sean Foreman's 162 game avg. If you include other factors such as injury then guys like Zambrano and Willis are doomed. They do things with their shoulder tendons that don't look very comfortable and I'm sure their tendons will tell you the same thing. I see them having careers similar to Sandy Koufax...a lights out pitcher but had to walk away from baseball way too early because of injuries. I've already touched on one...let me provide 3 reasons why it is harder/virtually impossible to get to 300 these days:
Injuries
I'll be short on this one because I've already touched on it. If you factor in injuries among other things then it doesn't really look like any of these guys will make it to 300. ANY. Even Sabathia. When teams start leaning on their pitchers too much then arm problems will occur. It's not that they might occur, it's that they will.
Pitching Management
But there is another reason 300 wins seems virtually impossible for young pitchers now. It really is harder to get a win today than in the previous generations. Pitchers lasted through more innings. With lefty and righty specialists, set-up men, and closers...a starting pitchers job has changed. It has changed from "give me a complete game shutout" to "give me 5-6 good innings". Because most bullpens are below average wins are blown. These wins can add up. Because of this it is not uncommon to see relief pitchers with 7-8 wins...the same totals as a many 5th starters in a lot of cases.
Offensive Era
I'll hit on this a little bit more in Pt 2, when I look at the Homerun Milestones. Let's just say that those of you worried about Bonds breaking the record don't need to worry that much. Anyways, this is the decade of the homer. Forget small ball. Why steal a base when you can just trot around the diamond? Say what you want to about steriods and shorter mounds and no spitballs, but pitchers don't really stand a chance these days.
So, I'll conclude by returning where I began. Watch Glavine when he goes for his 300th win. If you miss it...hope and pray that Randy Johnson can last 16 more wins. Because after Johnson, there's a good chance it won't ever happen again. EVER.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Our Message(s)
What!?! can it be? a new post from Petty's Ponderings? Sure enough. Sorry it's been awhile. The knee is better, still struggling to walk at times but right now I'm probably about 75% healed. The last 25 will come very slowly according to the doctors...quite possibly several months. But hey, as long as I'm walking.
I wanna discuss something I've been struggling with lately, and that is our message. I'm not talking about what we teach, i'm talking about our message that is indirectly communicated from our actions.
Parents teach their kids something when the kid hears mommy yelling at a telemarketer over the phone. The kids are watching what daddy looks at on TV and that sends a message. If Dave receives too much change at the cash register, Dave's kids are sent a message when Dave sneaks out of the store hoping no one realizes their mistake.
Now to take it further...What do you do if doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
I never really thought that it was possible for such a scenario to even exist. But that is kind of the dilemma I am in. I cannot release details at this time, but hopefully tings will pan out. I'm open to thoughts on the question above, What do you do when doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
Random thoughts on MLB, The Braves:
Not much to say, as usual I thought some all stars were undeserving and some were left off. I guess it is to be expected. Doesn't really matter though because either way the NL doesn't stand a chance without a miracle (1996 was the last time the NL won the Midsummer classic)
Random thoughts on the NBA draft:
I'm a Bulls fan (but one could argue a strong case that I'm not an NBA fan at all), but it will be obnoxious watching Joakim Noah play for the Bulls, a first round draft pick that I wasn't really impressed with.
Random thoughts on NASCAR:
they are loud and go zoom
I wanna discuss something I've been struggling with lately, and that is our message. I'm not talking about what we teach, i'm talking about our message that is indirectly communicated from our actions.
Parents teach their kids something when the kid hears mommy yelling at a telemarketer over the phone. The kids are watching what daddy looks at on TV and that sends a message. If Dave receives too much change at the cash register, Dave's kids are sent a message when Dave sneaks out of the store hoping no one realizes their mistake.
Now to take it further...What do you do if doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
I never really thought that it was possible for such a scenario to even exist. But that is kind of the dilemma I am in. I cannot release details at this time, but hopefully tings will pan out. I'm open to thoughts on the question above, What do you do when doing the right thing sends the wrong message?
Random thoughts on MLB, The Braves:
Not much to say, as usual I thought some all stars were undeserving and some were left off. I guess it is to be expected. Doesn't really matter though because either way the NL doesn't stand a chance without a miracle (1996 was the last time the NL won the Midsummer classic)
Random thoughts on the NBA draft:
I'm a Bulls fan (but one could argue a strong case that I'm not an NBA fan at all), but it will be obnoxious watching Joakim Noah play for the Bulls, a first round draft pick that I wasn't really impressed with.
Random thoughts on NASCAR:
they are loud and go zoom
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