Continuing our theme on the future of the Braves, I'd like to focus our attention now on the outfield.
We are on the verge of Kotsay being traded to the Red Sox, which would mean that our best outfielder is Gregor Blanco (I'm not counting Infante as an outfielder even though he plays outfield quite often. See my previous post for my thoughts on Infante), who began the season as the team's 4th outfielder.
We have the worst outfield in the major leagues, it's not even close. It's very possible that Jeff Francoeur single handedly cost us the season. Although I've never been a fan of blaming a team's demise on one person, Frenchy comes close.
Enough about this year's outfield. Let's look ahead to the future.
In the FA market, we have the likes of Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell among a few other interesting names. The Braves do have enough money to go after an outfielder, but as I've already posted, we also have a more expensive need for pitching.
In the minors we have:
Jordan Schafer (Drafted one round after Yunel Escobar) who is sporting a 1.111 OPS in August.
Brandon Jones (Nondrafted Free agent) has a .981 OPS in August.
Josh Anderson (Drafted by the Houston Astros) has a .978 OPS in August which includes an on-base % of .419. His average for the month of August is .376. Anderson has also stolen 42 bases in the minors this year.
The above minor leaguers have all been on fire the month of August and they are pretty much all competing for a spot on the 2009 roster. Obviously the above stats won't carry over to the major leagues. All of these prospects will have their growing pains.
The big problem we have, as we all know, is Jeff Francoeur. Even though he's amongst the worst outfielders (arguably - THE worst) in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby thinks he's amongst the best. The Braves certainly treat him that way at least.
As much as I and everybody else wishes he wouldn't be our starting RF next year, the reality is that he will be back in Rightfield in 2009 whether we like it or not. This is unfortunate, but realistic. In the beginning of July, when Frenchy was sent down, Wren made it clear that he works for Frenchy, not vice versa.
Here's what we are looking at - Frenchy in right field, probably a newly acquired free agent in leftfield, whomever that might be. Centerfield is up for grabs. It's highly possible that they'll go with Blanco in CF for 2009, but it'd be nice to get some pop on occasion.
We have so many questions -
1. What about Diaz? He hasn't been mentioned much here, but will there be a spot for him next year?
2. Blanco and Anderson are kind of the same player - which one (if any) do we keep?
3. Will Brandon Jones and Jordan Schafer need another year of seasoning in the minors?
4. Will I actually watch a game after the September call-ups?
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008
2B or not 2B, is Kelly the question?
Continuing our theme on the future of the Braves, I would like to turn our attention towards one position, specifically, one player. Second baseman Kelly Johnson.
Let's look at his career splits for a moment. Kelly Johnson has some of the more interesting splits you'll ever see players have. Despite the way Cox uses him, he has a significantly higher average against left handed pitchers, although his BABIP suggests luck has helped him with that. However, his slugging % is down against the lefties. Curiously enough, his OPS+ is practically even in both platoon roles.
Another interesting split - in games the Braves win Kelly hits, reaches, and slugs .311/.403/.533. However, in losses Kelly is only sporting a line of .214/.294/.316. I think this split speaks volumes.
He's pretty even home vs. road. And he's a touch better in the first half.
Kelly is at an advantage because he is a second baseman...depending on which stat you use as your base, you'll find him ranking amongst the middle of the pack when comparing him to all other second baseman around the majors.
That's pretty much what Kelly is. He's a mediocre hitter with an mediocre glove.
The flip side is that we also have 2 other hitters, Martin Prado and Omar Infante, who are swinging well enough to justify getting more at bats. So...what do we do.
Well, here's what I'd do - trade both Prado and Infante. It's pretty simple. Right now the return we'd get for them is as high as it (most likely) will ever be. Infante has never hit this well in his career. Prado, while he was a .300 hitter in the minor leagues (career), has never slugged as well as he has been in 2008. Prado is not going to be much with a career slugging % under .400 and he's not a basestealing threat. But it's a good time to trade him while he's slugging this well.
BABIP says they've been lucky this year. We've sold low all too often, it'd be nice to sell high for a change. Besides, the last time (that I can think of) that we sold high during a trade was the Edgar Renteria trade, and look how that worked out! I bet we could get a very decent return for one or both of them.
I know the drawback in doing this. Our bench would take a hit. That's probably going to be the #1 problem people have with my suggestion. However, after the results we've had this month, I really don't think we should be concerned about bench depth. We've got to get some decent starters before we start complaining about our bench. As soon as we fill out a roster full of proven mlb starters, then we'll talk about our bench. But right now, two-thirds of our regulars would be bench players on most clubs, if they are even on the roster at all.
So, I'd trade Prado and Infante. But what about Kelly? Kelly is a tough call because when he's on, the Braves win quite frequently (as the above split indicates) but when he's off, he's Francoeuresque. If you're able to figure out a pattern in his slumps and streaks, you are a pretty good detective. Best we can do is put him in when he's swinging well and let him swing himself out of the lineup. But can he catch fire again while riding the pine for a month?
What would you do?
Let's look at his career splits for a moment. Kelly Johnson has some of the more interesting splits you'll ever see players have. Despite the way Cox uses him, he has a significantly higher average against left handed pitchers, although his BABIP suggests luck has helped him with that. However, his slugging % is down against the lefties. Curiously enough, his OPS+ is practically even in both platoon roles.
Another interesting split - in games the Braves win Kelly hits, reaches, and slugs .311/.403/.533. However, in losses Kelly is only sporting a line of .214/.294/.316. I think this split speaks volumes.
He's pretty even home vs. road. And he's a touch better in the first half.
Kelly is at an advantage because he is a second baseman...depending on which stat you use as your base, you'll find him ranking amongst the middle of the pack when comparing him to all other second baseman around the majors.
That's pretty much what Kelly is. He's a mediocre hitter with an mediocre glove.
The flip side is that we also have 2 other hitters, Martin Prado and Omar Infante, who are swinging well enough to justify getting more at bats. So...what do we do.
Well, here's what I'd do - trade both Prado and Infante. It's pretty simple. Right now the return we'd get for them is as high as it (most likely) will ever be. Infante has never hit this well in his career. Prado, while he was a .300 hitter in the minor leagues (career), has never slugged as well as he has been in 2008. Prado is not going to be much with a career slugging % under .400 and he's not a basestealing threat. But it's a good time to trade him while he's slugging this well.
BABIP says they've been lucky this year. We've sold low all too often, it'd be nice to sell high for a change. Besides, the last time (that I can think of) that we sold high during a trade was the Edgar Renteria trade, and look how that worked out! I bet we could get a very decent return for one or both of them.
I know the drawback in doing this. Our bench would take a hit. That's probably going to be the #1 problem people have with my suggestion. However, after the results we've had this month, I really don't think we should be concerned about bench depth. We've got to get some decent starters before we start complaining about our bench. As soon as we fill out a roster full of proven mlb starters, then we'll talk about our bench. But right now, two-thirds of our regulars would be bench players on most clubs, if they are even on the roster at all.
So, I'd trade Prado and Infante. But what about Kelly? Kelly is a tough call because when he's on, the Braves win quite frequently (as the above split indicates) but when he's off, he's Francoeuresque. If you're able to figure out a pattern in his slumps and streaks, you are a pretty good detective. Best we can do is put him in when he's swinging well and let him swing himself out of the lineup. But can he catch fire again while riding the pine for a month?
What would you do?
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Offseason spending spree
I and all of the other Braves fans are saying "see you next year" in mid August for the first time since I was pushing my toy trucks around the basement after I got home from First grade (I think). Still there will be a lot to watch for between now and spring training. If you search through the Braves blogs you'll see writers looking forward to seeing which prospects perform well in the September call-ups, how our DLed relievers are doing, which players have Dr. James Andrews on their speed dial.
OK, so nobody cares about that. Let's not kid ourselves and just get out there in the open what we are all thinking about. The Braves have close to half of their payroll to spend on new arms and bats this winter.
Let's look at some of the key players looking for new contracts:
**Disclaimer: It's only mid-August, and a lot can happen to change the status of some of these players. Some guys not listed have a player, club, or mutual option for '09. The following list is a "as of right now" kind of scenario...
Key Bats (Outfield):
Manny Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Pat Burrell
Two of these guys (Burrell and Dunn) are similar in a lot of ways. They are very inconsistent. They'll have 1 great week, 1 terrible week, and 1 mediocre week.
Manny might be out of our price range. Manny is currently at 20mil/year and the way he is swinging the bat right now in LA doesn't suggest a discount due to his age. Besides, it's been since John Rocker since we've had a personality like his in Atl. I don't think Manny would fit very well in Atlanta and I don't think Manny would like playing in Atlanta anyways.
Key Arms:
A.J. Burnett (might opt out)
Ryan Dempster
Ben Sheets
C.C. Sabathia
Well, what would you do? Guys like Burnett and Sheets have had injury problems. The obvious choice is Sabathia, but he has to make you a little nervous with all of those innings he has logged at his age.
Realistically, I don't see Sabathia happening. I could be wrong, but it is important to note that the Yankees will also be shopping for a starter, and you know they are going to go for the best available - C.C. I don't think it matters that the Braves have half their payroll to spend, the Yankees will outbid anybody when they are desperate enough.
Sheets has to make you nervous also, it's been 4 years since he's thrown 200 innings. I know arm injuries aren't contagious, but being surrounded by Braves pitchers with new ligaments probably won't help him. Still, this is the best chance I see the Braves having of improving their staff via free agency, as the pitching market is pretty thick this year. And I think Braves fans are getting impatient of waiting on Jo-Jo Reyes to prove himself and as injury prone as Hampton is, at least Sheets won't make me laugh like Mike Hampton does. Anyways, I say all this to say, you're not going to improve your club if you don't take chances. Here's what I'd do...
Sign Adam Dunn - 5 yr/85 mil (17 mil/year)
He made 13 mil in 2008. I figure Dunn will probably join the 17-18 per year club of outfielders joining A. Soriano, V. Wells, A. Jones and others soon to join. It seems kind of steep, especially when comparing him to Soriano. He has always struggled with batting average but who cares. We need his on base percentage almost as badly as we need his 40 homers. I'd say anything cheaper than 17 mil/year is a steal if acquiring him as a free agent. If a lot of teams are interested, look for his price to rise.
Sign Ben Sheets 4 years/60mil (15mil/year) with opportunities to make up to $3 million/year more through innings pitched, cy young votings, etc.
Sheets is a bit tougher to predict his price tag. My prediction is most likely way off. Names on his "most similar to" list include A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Brad Penny also makes an appearance in the age listing. It's unrealistic to expect him to make every start, but when he's on the hill he's producing results. He made 11 million this year and it's been one of his better years in health and performance combined. I think what makes it especially tough to predict his payroll is that (to my knowledge) an injury prone pitcher of Sheets' quality hasn't received a new contract lately. Santana and Zito didn't have an injury history when they were signed (although some say claim they predicted Zito's velocity to drop). Right now, Peavy is at 17 million/year, so that has to be a standard somewhere to start at. Even with his injury history, he's still going to be expensive, as the price of pitching is always rising. It would be a mistake to not have any performance/durability incentives in Sheets' contract.
Sign Ryan Dempster: 3 years/36 million (12 million/year)
I realize that Ryan Dempster's 2008 campaign is most likely a fluke. He's never put up numbers this good before. He's been a reliever the past several years, so that probably does make this a pretty special case. But I really doubt we'll be able to afford two top of the rotation starters and an outfield powerbat. If we get a leftfield (or maybe rightfield, but doubt it) bat, then we'll probably only be able to purchase 1 ace and possibly a second, but most likely a third starter, bringing us to Dempster.
True, he's not incredible. However, his ERA+ has been 96 or higher each of the past 5 seasons, 112 or higher in 3 of those 5 seasons. After what Braves fans have experienced this year, I think we'd be pretty satisfied for anybody who throws about 180 league average innings. I guess it all just hinges on if the Cubs resign him or not. With a rotation Already consisting of Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and Marquis you figure the competition will be tough for Dempster, who until this year was a reliever since 2004.
Some of you readers may disagree, but I'm gonna guess that 12 mil/year is a fair market value for Dempster. It may seem a little on the low side if he's a starter, and if you solely look at 2008, it is low. But remember his career ERA is 4.60. Much more money than that and he's getting elite pitcher money, and Dempster is not among the Elite.
Well, that's 44 million per year on those guys. It has been calculated that about 50 million will be available for spending, but a lot of that depends on if Glavine retires after seeing his MRI. I'm a bit skeptical if it's really that much, but if that number is accurate, we can use the remaining 6 million to plug up holes in the bench or bullpen.
I'd go to war with that Rotation...
Sheets
Dempster
Jurrjens
Campillo
Reyes/Morton/Whoever????
As far as the lineup...
Escobar
Kotchman
Chipper
Dunn
McCann
Johnson
Frenchy
Whatever minor leaguer plays CF for us next year
Pitcher
The ineup might could use a bit of tweaking still, but we can see clearly that the addition of Dunn is quite an improvement alone.
OK, so let me have it. Tell me how wrong I am. Do you disagree with my signings? Are my contracts too low or too high paying? I admit, I'm not an agent nor am I a GM. What do you think?
OK, so nobody cares about that. Let's not kid ourselves and just get out there in the open what we are all thinking about. The Braves have close to half of their payroll to spend on new arms and bats this winter.
Let's look at some of the key players looking for new contracts:
**Disclaimer: It's only mid-August, and a lot can happen to change the status of some of these players. Some guys not listed have a player, club, or mutual option for '09. The following list is a "as of right now" kind of scenario...
Key Bats (Outfield):
Manny Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Pat Burrell
Two of these guys (Burrell and Dunn) are similar in a lot of ways. They are very inconsistent. They'll have 1 great week, 1 terrible week, and 1 mediocre week.
Manny might be out of our price range. Manny is currently at 20mil/year and the way he is swinging the bat right now in LA doesn't suggest a discount due to his age. Besides, it's been since John Rocker since we've had a personality like his in Atl. I don't think Manny would fit very well in Atlanta and I don't think Manny would like playing in Atlanta anyways.
Key Arms:
A.J. Burnett (might opt out)
Ryan Dempster
Ben Sheets
C.C. Sabathia
Well, what would you do? Guys like Burnett and Sheets have had injury problems. The obvious choice is Sabathia, but he has to make you a little nervous with all of those innings he has logged at his age.
Realistically, I don't see Sabathia happening. I could be wrong, but it is important to note that the Yankees will also be shopping for a starter, and you know they are going to go for the best available - C.C. I don't think it matters that the Braves have half their payroll to spend, the Yankees will outbid anybody when they are desperate enough.
Sheets has to make you nervous also, it's been 4 years since he's thrown 200 innings. I know arm injuries aren't contagious, but being surrounded by Braves pitchers with new ligaments probably won't help him. Still, this is the best chance I see the Braves having of improving their staff via free agency, as the pitching market is pretty thick this year. And I think Braves fans are getting impatient of waiting on Jo-Jo Reyes to prove himself and as injury prone as Hampton is, at least Sheets won't make me laugh like Mike Hampton does. Anyways, I say all this to say, you're not going to improve your club if you don't take chances. Here's what I'd do...
Sign Adam Dunn - 5 yr/85 mil (17 mil/year)
He made 13 mil in 2008. I figure Dunn will probably join the 17-18 per year club of outfielders joining A. Soriano, V. Wells, A. Jones and others soon to join. It seems kind of steep, especially when comparing him to Soriano. He has always struggled with batting average but who cares. We need his on base percentage almost as badly as we need his 40 homers. I'd say anything cheaper than 17 mil/year is a steal if acquiring him as a free agent. If a lot of teams are interested, look for his price to rise.
Sign Ben Sheets 4 years/60mil (15mil/year) with opportunities to make up to $3 million/year more through innings pitched, cy young votings, etc.
Sheets is a bit tougher to predict his price tag. My prediction is most likely way off. Names on his "most similar to" list include A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, and Brad Penny also makes an appearance in the age listing. It's unrealistic to expect him to make every start, but when he's on the hill he's producing results. He made 11 million this year and it's been one of his better years in health and performance combined. I think what makes it especially tough to predict his payroll is that (to my knowledge) an injury prone pitcher of Sheets' quality hasn't received a new contract lately. Santana and Zito didn't have an injury history when they were signed (although some say claim they predicted Zito's velocity to drop). Right now, Peavy is at 17 million/year, so that has to be a standard somewhere to start at. Even with his injury history, he's still going to be expensive, as the price of pitching is always rising. It would be a mistake to not have any performance/durability incentives in Sheets' contract.
Sign Ryan Dempster: 3 years/36 million (12 million/year)
I realize that Ryan Dempster's 2008 campaign is most likely a fluke. He's never put up numbers this good before. He's been a reliever the past several years, so that probably does make this a pretty special case. But I really doubt we'll be able to afford two top of the rotation starters and an outfield powerbat. If we get a leftfield (or maybe rightfield, but doubt it) bat, then we'll probably only be able to purchase 1 ace and possibly a second, but most likely a third starter, bringing us to Dempster.
True, he's not incredible. However, his ERA+ has been 96 or higher each of the past 5 seasons, 112 or higher in 3 of those 5 seasons. After what Braves fans have experienced this year, I think we'd be pretty satisfied for anybody who throws about 180 league average innings. I guess it all just hinges on if the Cubs resign him or not. With a rotation Already consisting of Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and Marquis you figure the competition will be tough for Dempster, who until this year was a reliever since 2004.
Some of you readers may disagree, but I'm gonna guess that 12 mil/year is a fair market value for Dempster. It may seem a little on the low side if he's a starter, and if you solely look at 2008, it is low. But remember his career ERA is 4.60. Much more money than that and he's getting elite pitcher money, and Dempster is not among the Elite.
Well, that's 44 million per year on those guys. It has been calculated that about 50 million will be available for spending, but a lot of that depends on if Glavine retires after seeing his MRI. I'm a bit skeptical if it's really that much, but if that number is accurate, we can use the remaining 6 million to plug up holes in the bench or bullpen.
I'd go to war with that Rotation...
Sheets
Dempster
Jurrjens
Campillo
Reyes/Morton/Whoever????
As far as the lineup...
Escobar
Kotchman
Chipper
Dunn
McCann
Johnson
Frenchy
Whatever minor leaguer plays CF for us next year
Pitcher
The ineup might could use a bit of tweaking still, but we can see clearly that the addition of Dunn is quite an improvement alone.
OK, so let me have it. Tell me how wrong I am. Do you disagree with my signings? Are my contracts too low or too high paying? I admit, I'm not an agent nor am I a GM. What do you think?
Friday, August 1, 2008
Netflix Friends
I'm in the process of trying to take advantage of the Netflix friends application. It's a great way to share movie tastes and opinions with each other.
I sent out several invitation, but if I missed you, either give me your email address or just send me an invitation.
Watch the Braves tomorrow and look for the Central Youth group in left center field.
I sent out several invitation, but if I missed you, either give me your email address or just send me an invitation.
Watch the Braves tomorrow and look for the Central Youth group in left center field.
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