Thursday, April 26, 2007

Salty's Fate

There have been numerous discussions on what the destiny of Braves catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia (his name always seems to get the red wavy underline). There have been talks of a position switch for either he, or Brian McCann.

MLB Trade Rumors explores different possible trades between the Braves and the Tigers (plus a few other teams mixed in), a team that is interested in a young catcher.

In case you aren't familiar with MLB Trade Rumors, it is a site that gathers all types of rumors concerning transactions of MLB players. It is simply a collection of rumors, nothing reliable.

If you are subscribed to MLBTR, you really have to be a critical reader. Sometimes they make public a rumor that is completely idiotic (for example, the article suggests a Salty for Dontrelle Willis swap, ha!). Other times, they are right on the money and a trade rumor they share happens days or even hours later. I guess what I'm trying to say is this: Don't translate this post as saying that Salty is about to be a Detroit Tiger.

So back to Salty. Really, I feel like his stock is highest as a minor leaguer. I'd like to see Salty stay a Brave, but I fear is stock dropping once he gets up here and faces tougher pitching. Some say LF is where he'll be. I've heard that the Braves aren't very high on putting him in LF (source was ajc.com I think). Outfield prospects Brandon Jones and Gregor Blanco seem to be sending a message (with their bats) that the OF is stacked in the minors for the time being.

If I had a vote on where to put Salty, I'd put him at 1B. Thorman probably will eventually be a decent major league hitter, but probably not soon enough for Braves fans' patience to stick with him. Also, 1b is the weakest position in the Braves minor league system, as far as quality of prospects goes.

Still, if the right trade offer comes, especially for pitching, I'd say jump on it. Salty's value will possibly drop when he jumps to the big club...although I've been wrong before.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

So...how good are the Braves?

Some say the Braves are back to their dominant form. to back up their statement they claim the following facts:

-They are 12-7.

As Bill Parcells likes to say, "You are what your record says you are"

-They are 6-2 in games decided by 2 runs or less.

The sign of a solid bullpen (although i'd argue that it's not as solid as most people think). You can't win the close ones if you can't win the 8th and 9th innings. Record in close games is what killed the Braves in '06

-They haven't yet lost a series.

Great, so no one can play a series against us and win more games than we do...isn't that the goal of October baseball? Even more ensuring is the fact that we've already played 2 series with the Mets, going 4-2 against them.


Others claim that the Braves have not yet proven themselves. Here are the facts they use to point to their statement:


Pythagorean Record is currently at 10-9.

Winning a close one and then getting blown out the next day is a sign that maybe things aren't as good as the record indicates.

The past week or so, they've played .500 baseball.

Oh, I was hoping nobody else would notice. The first 2 weeks we go 7 - 2, now we are sitting at 12-7. Still a good record, don't get me wrong. But we have gone 5-5 the past 10 days. We won't be able to hang with the Mets for long unless we can win a bit more.

With the exception of the Mets, they've played nothing but sub .500 teams

So as we stand right now we are 4-2 against good teams (or a good team), 8-5 against bad teams. It's kind of funny. At the beginning of season, everyone was saying the first few weeks of the Braves season will really set their tone, because they start the season right off playing division opponents for almost the entire month (save chicago and colorado). Now sports writers are using the same fact to prove a different point, saying, these are weak teams, the real test is yet to come.

sidenote...I don't want to spend too much time on the last point. But has anybody looked ahead to the Month of May. May will have some fantastic matchups as the Braves play the Dodgers, the Brewers, the Redsox, oh...and the Mets of course. We play those 4 teams that have been battling for the best record in baseball. It should be fun, if I had tivo...I'd tivo those games (just trying to get into practice of using tivo as a verb). If you really want to point to strength of schedule, let's point to the Month of May, and see how the Braves do.

So, back to the back and forth discussion how good the Braves really are. Is it as good as the first few facts point to? Or are they not quite as good as the second set of facts point toward.
To me, it boils down to which record means the most. Most of those facts involve a Win-Loss record of sometype. But which one means most. Overall record? Pythagorean record? Record in close games? Record in the past 10 days?

Most of you are probably going to hate this answer, but my answer is somewhere in the middle. They probably aren't as good as the top set of facts indicate, they probably aren't as bad as the bottom set of facts indicate. Just somewhere floating in the middle (another sidenote, does anybody besides me say that we're "in the middle" way to much? Church, Politics, now sports!).

I would be a little bit more comfortable if we had a better Pythagorean record. As I've said before, I don't 100% agree with the idea of Pythagorean record...but I don't 100% disagree with it either. There needs to be a bit bigger margin between our runs scored and runs given up. Most people say that the Braves need to score more runs to accomplish this. I certainly don't have a problem with us scoring more runs, but I'm not sure I agree that our offense is the big problem. After all, we are 5th in the national league in Runs scored/game(also 5th in runs), leading the league in homers, third in the league in SLG%, well above league average in OBP (would anybody have guess that we are second in the league in walks). Although there are a few holes and a few slumps in the lineup, the offense is OK (compared to the rest of the NL).

Our pitching is however below the league average in ERA, runs surrendered/game, and WHIP. When I first noticed this, I was stunned. How could our pitching be worse than our offense? Hudson is new and improved, smoltz is smoltz, James is a quality 3 guy. Our bullpen is one of the best out there. How can this be the problem. After more browsing of the stats, i then discovered the problem. The problem can be found here.

That link is the Braves pitching broken down by inning. What you notice is that the Braves have superb pitching in innings 1-3. Braves pitching has given up 23 runs in innings 1-3 and considering that 9 of those belong to Mark Redman, that puts us in pretty good at the beginning of the game. The problem, I believe, lies in innings 4-6 (or really, just 5 and 6). The braves pitchers have given up 15 homers all year. Ten of those have come in innings 4-6. The opposition is batting .308 against us in the 4th - 6th innings(Including almost .400 in the sixth). We are just completely getting hammered in the middle of the game! So what is it about innings 4-6 that make us so vulnerable?

I guess nobody really knows, but I have a few ideas. Inning 5-6 is normally the time when your starter starts to wear down and you start to go to the pen. So maybe (a) we leave our starters in too long and they give up lots of hits/homeruns because of their fatigue or (b) we don't have anybody good enough to get us to the 7th inning, when we turn it over to Mike Gonzo, then Soriano, then Wickman to end the game. I'm thinking of a few cases when Villareal or Yates gets handed the ball in the 5 or 6th inning and they don't get us to the 7th.

Whatever the problem is, I thought it was pretty interesting, seeing the pitching stats broken down by inning. Clearly we are most vulnerable during the middle of the game. We are solid in the first few innings. We haven't necessarily been awesome in the late innings (41 of 86 walks come in the late innings). But that isn't to the fault of wickman or soriano. The problem there is when McBride or Molyer would come in and turn a 7-1 braves lead into a 7-5 wickman save. The game is pretty much decided by that time anyways, so I didn't read too much into the 7-9 inning stats, they are so different from Wickman and soriano's stats.

In case your curious, here is the runs given up compared to runs scored broken down by 3 inning segments:

Runs given up Runs scored

innings 1-3 23 29
innings 4-6 34 26
innings 7-9 30 35

I realize several will disagree with me that the pitching is more of a problem than the offense. They'll point to the LF and 1B platoons and show they're lack of production. That's not incorrect. 1b and LF should step up, i don't disagree that we need more production from those slots. We really do! However, i feel like a bigger problem is getting to the 8th and 9th after our starter comes out. Or perhaps our bullpen is not as solid as Braves fans including me think.

Anyways, sorry this one was kind of wordy (and possibly a bit on the boring side). I learned a lot while browsing around looking at the stat distribution by inning. Tonight redman goes up against the Marlins, so I'm worried this might be the first series we lose. We'll see how it goes!

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Is there anything consistent about my blog?

According to Google Analytics, here are the top keyword searches that lead people to my blog. Some of them make sense, others don't.


1. 2007 MLB predictions
2. Coach K Lacrosse scandal
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Chris Petty blog
5. Nooma is bad theology
6. Petty's, tyler tx
7. Madden 2008
8. Jenny petty
9. University of Florida tuition
10. Democrat tax policy



Okay, a few observations from this list. 1 - I talk about several different topics. 2 - apparently there is another Petty family in Tyler, TX. 3 - Hey! Who's looking my wife up!

If someone can explain those last couple ones to me and their relationship with this blog, I'm all ears.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

What does Hillary Clinton have in common with Madden?

Every late winter, early spring, there is always talk about who will be on the cover of the new Madden NFL video game. This year is no different. Many different rumors have been flying. Among those rumored to be on the cover are C. Johnson, L. Tomlinson, and P. Manning. But now the world finally knows and can stop guessing. The face on the new Madden will be the face of Titan's quarterback, Vince Young.

As the article says, "Young joins former Madden cover athletes Daunte Culpepper, Michael Vick, and Donovan McNabb in a collection of quarterbacks that combine a good arm with serious running ability." These type of quarterbacks are "new breeds". A new breed quarterback not only can throw the ball down the field, but can scramble down the field with the best of them.

This new breed of quarterbacks are slowly starting to take over the NFL. Some view this as good, and some view this bad. I guess it depends on what type of offense you like (or how good your Offensive Line is).

But anyways, back to the Madden 08 cover. Young claims he is not afraid of the madden curse but looks forward to the challenge of proving it a myth. In the past, those who appear on the Madden cover have...to put it lightly....down years. A year plagued with struggles and/or injury. Is this really a curse or is it more a coincidence? Again, I suppose it just depends on how superstitious you are. I tend to lean towards coincidence but that's just me.

So, whoever is on the Madden 08 cover will have a bad year, eh? Oh the places I could go with this. Any of you photoshop experts out have lots of free time? Try this: put Hillary Clinton on the cover of Madden 2008. Maybe she'll have a bad year. (**Disclaimer: No, it's not an anti female thing or an anti democrat thing, it's just and anti Clinton family thing. For the record, there is a lot of genius in what the Clinton family has done and is doing for america. I just think they are slimeballs ethically**)If she is on the cover maybe she'll post some "bad stats".

What about Dwignt K. Schrute from the NBC show, The Office? I'm sure he'd love to be on the Madden 08 cover. He may actually have to miss work because of injury. Probably wouldn't be salesman of the year, that's for sure.

One more...what about Dr. Burks, President of Harding University? What would happen to HU if he were on the Madden cover? Would we be financially unable to put up another new building? Would they have to settle for a homecoming musical budget of a jar of peanuts and a cardboard box? What would it be like? Interesting...

I'll contact the head honchos at EA Sports to see if it is too late take Vince off. Any other suggestions on who to put on the cover? Hmm...i think this could go places.

If you can't tell, there's not much to write about. Braves are doing Okay, 9-4 as of right now and today we face our first non NL East opponent, the Chicago Cubs. Work is good, we only have a few Nooma videos left to show the Teens, then we'll start studying the Letters of Paul. Jenny and I are headed out of town this weekend, just to get away.

Peace!

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Deathbed

Relient K released a new album, Five Score and Seven years ago, awhile back. I must confess, I was pretty slow in this getting it. I can’t give a good reason for this…Relient K was always a band I listened to and supported. Nevertheless, Jenny and I finally have the new album.

I don’t want this to turn into a review, but what I do hope is that the one song on the album, Deathbed, hits you the same way it hits me.

The fact that the song is 11:05 long gives people a negative reaction before they even hear the song in the first place. But, here is the scoop on “long songs”…

You have to be in the mood for them…

Several Artists have tried producing songs that have considerably great lengths. Let’s take Weird Al Yankovic for example (ah, there’s somebody great to use for normal comparisons, but anyways…). He has a several (Albuquerque, Genius in France, Trapped in Drive-Thru, etc) songs that are quite long. In all three cases, they aren’t his best stuff, but not his worst either. A few times I skip these songs thinking “ah…it’s too long for my liking right now”. Other times, I listen to these songs and have a blast.

Lengthy songs are something you have to be in the mood for. However, at least for me, Deathbed is an exception.

I have yet to skip this song for any reason. In fact, it is one of, if not THE, best songs on the Album, in my humble opinion.

The song tells a story about an individual who has had an extremely rough life. This is an individual who had a rough, abandoned childhood; a bad, forced marriage with a girl he "californicated" who would eventually leave due to lack of love; an alcoholic and a smoker. The narrator is on his deathbed reflecting over his life.

Enter: The climax of the song. Let's call it, "The Climactor!" "You can't stop the "Climactor!" "Ain't no party like the Climactor party cuz the Climactor party don't stop!"

As lung cancer is killing the narrator he begins pondering the Love of Jesus...

I was so scared of Jesus
But He sought me out
Like the cancer in my lungs
That's killing me now
And I've given up hope
On the days I have left
But I cling to the hope
Of my life in the next

Then Jesus showed up
Said "Before we go"
"I thought that we might reminisce"
"See one night in your life"
"When you turned out the light"
"You asked for and prayed for my forgiveness"

You cried wolf
The tears they soaked your fur
The blood dripped from your fangs
You said, "What have I done?"
You loved that lamb
With every sinful bone
And there you wept alone
Your heart was so contrite

You said,"Jesus, please forgive me of my crimes
Sanctify this withered heart of mine
Stay with me until my life is through
And on that day please take me home with you".

I can smell the death on the sheets
Covering me
I can't believe this is the end
I can hear You whisper to me,
"It's time to leave
You'll never be lonely again"
But this was my deathbed
I died there alone
When I closed my eyes tonight
You carried me home

Finally, at the end of the song, Jon Foreman of Switchfoot makes a guest appearance as the voice of Jesus, singing:

I am the way
Follow me and take my hand
And I am the truth
Embrace me and you'll understand
I am the Light
And for me you'll live again
For I am love
I am love
I, I am love

This is truly a fantastic song. Relient K's forte is perfectly balancing spirituality, reality, and comedy into one album. The love of Jesus reaches people of all types, all races, all genders, all backgrounds. This is not only a good song, it gets me thinking every line of every verse.

Thanks to producers Townsend and Benson and especially to Matt Thiessen, Matt Hoopes, Dave Douglas, John Warne, and Jon Schneck as well as special guest Jon Foreman for making this not only a great song, but a spritual journey.

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Cop A Long

3 times this week I have witnessed the following scenario. Let me know if this is familiar or if I am the only one who ever notices...

I'm sitting in my car at a red light. I hear sirens. Almost immediately, I seek to locate the sirens. I look forward, left, right, and in the rear view mirror. I see the policeman. He is a several cars behind me, weaves back and forth between the lanes...gets to the far left side of the road. Runs the redlight and then...shuts his siren off.

Three times this week I have seen a cop use his siren to simply get him/her through a red light. My initial thought when this happens is, "Wow, thats kind of jerky to do". Why do cops do that? It seem abusive of their authority.

Can a cop pull a cop over? Don't think I've ever seen it, but I don't see how it is not possible. What would happen if I would have run the redlight immediately after the cop runs it? Could I use what I witnessed to talk my way out of a ticket?

Another thought, I've seen this before. So why is it such a big deal to me? THREE TIMES THIS WEEK!!!!!! Is this national siren abuse week? I just don't get it. Any of you criminal justice buffs out there want to help me out on this, feel free to chime in. Perhaps I'm wrong (very unlikely, ha ha) but what I saw 3 times seemed to have tainted my view of security.

I'm not like most people. I don't hate cops. It is their job to protect the city. I find it ironic how many people hate cops. People hate cops, yet cops are paid to protect those who hate them. Why hate those who protect you. True, they give tickets, arrest, keep us from "having fun" but this is all to keep the city safer. But when they do this, they are just trying to keep the city a safer place to live and drive. Try this, next time a cop gives you a ticket, say to him/her, "thank you for giving me this ticket. I want this to be a safe place as much as you do." Wow, that one's tough.

When Jesus walked this earth, he came to seek and save. Yet, many people hated him for it. Similar to cops, people hated Jesus even though Jesus came for those who hated him. A man full of unconditional love was hated for....loving others!?!? He healed on the Sabbath, not to break the law, but show love to others. He was hated for this.

Neither case makes sense. Why hate cops because they protect us? Why hate Jesus because he saves? Think about that...

Unlike Christ, Cops make mistakes. I hope cops abusing their siren doesn't turn into a trend. It is obnoxious, but they still have my support in the long haul.

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Let's hope history repeats itself...

What a weird game. Hudson pitched a gem, but of course it went wasted. He was better than Smoltz was! Let's hope this is a sign of things to come.

What can you say about Brian McCann? The guy simply is unbelievable, offensively and defensively. He cracked a clutch ding dong in the 9th to tie it up, plus...in the previous half inning he was able to hang onto the ball and apply a tag to a freight train running at him (a slow train, but still a train).

As I have made clear in several posts, this winter, I had baseball fever worse than I possibly ever had. I'm not sure, but it probably had something to do with no Braves in the postseason. Anyways, let's hope we can keep those W's rolling in.

As far as the title of this post goes, many of you probably want to know what that has to do with anything. Well, since i'm feeling generous, I'll tell you. The last time the Braves began the season 2-0....they were in the World Series. [insert post title].

Monday, April 2, 2007

The Braves are Undefeated

I figure I better go ahead and start a new post with this title, while it is still true. Today went as expected (mostly), but the unexpected part is coming up, the 2-5 starters. Nobody really knows what to expect.

KJ's had a bad, and almost costly error (technically, ruled a base hit, but that is a laugh). Coincidently the one who saved him is the one who KJ called off.

Let's see how everything else goes. Good games from BMac, Smoltz, Chipper and Edgar.

In other news...

Tony Pena jr.'s first game as a Royal presented a triple that hit off of the centerfield wall, about a foot and a half away from a homer at the deepest part of the ballpark. Yep, that's what we traded away. Poor Royals, they were mislead by somebody. It'll be about 185873639693 more games before he does that again.

OSU needs to win tonight so I don't hear it from the Florida fans again this year.

Peace!