Reminders like this have been going around Lowndes County like crazy today, so if this is the 27,000th time you've been reminded about this, my apologies.
But don't forget - ESPN will be at Bazemore-Hyder stadium at 5:00, tailgates start as early as 3:30 from what I hear.
They'll be here filming the Valdosta segment of Titletown, USA, since Valdosta is one of the top 25 finalists.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Monday, July 7, 2008
Bad deal
It's been awhile, and I don't really have time for an extremely informative post, I'm a little bit behind after my recent trip to see the last 3 Braves games.
Well, I hate to end on a sour note, and I especially hate to have a negative reaction on Mark Teixeira since he was the hero of last night's marathon. But have you seen what the Brewers gave up for Sabathia? Compare that with what the Mets gave up for Santana, and yes, well, we gave up way to much for 1.5 years of Tex.
Well, I hate to end on a sour note, and I especially hate to have a negative reaction on Mark Teixeira since he was the hero of last night's marathon. But have you seen what the Brewers gave up for Sabathia? Compare that with what the Mets gave up for Santana, and yes, well, we gave up way to much for 1.5 years of Tex.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Putting the Braves in perspective...
It's been awhile since I've posted anything. Sorry, for those of you who missed me. If you didn't miss me, then why are you reading?
The Problem
I heard someon mention at our softball game yesterday that they now no longer care if the Braves win, as long as Chipper gets 2 hits. That's a pretty good intro...
Look, I'm not the biggest fan of Pythagorean Records. Why? Well, the Braves' Pythagorean Record tells us we are one of the better teams in the league.
Um, sorry, but we aren't. I don't need a math formula to tell me otherwise.
Sure, it's nice to know where our record "should" be. But it all boils down to the fact that we aren't there.
We have a super utility and a backup infielder splitting time in LF. We have the league's worst right fielder. We only have 1, arguably 2-3 if you count the LOOGYs, reliever who can be labeled "reliable." We have only one starter who can go past the 6th consistently. We only have 2 starters that can go past the 5th consistently.
Sorry Mr. James, but the above is not a formula for success. Common sense beats the calculator here.
Is it that bad?
Probably not, but we'll see in September. I hear a lot of moaning and groaning about 1 run losses. There is some validity in those groans (we do need a better bullpen, for example) I like how Bobby worded it in an interview yesterday when he said "we're in every game". By that he means, we don't get blown out, yesterday's game excluded which is bound to happen every now and then. I do think it is a positive sign that we really don't get destroyed that much in our games this season.
The injuries are going to happen. In the 90s it seemed like we never lost a key player for an extended period of time (Justice, Galaragga, and Smoltz are the only ones I can think of in about 10 seconds of thinking.). Since we were a bit injury lucky in the 90s it seems to be catching up with us in the current decade. Is it random chance? Possibly. However Smoltz of this decade is 10 years older than Smoltz of last decade. Plus, Leo Mazzone has a better (I'd argue - The best) philosophy of pitcher maintenance which he documents in his book (oh and by the way, he's available to return to coaching). Still, injuries are going to happen.
Where do we go from here?
We probably need to think about restocking on prospects more than we have been. I'm not saying we should forfeit the season, but there are going to be a lot of changes in the next 2 offseasons with a lot of money to spend. Plus, IMHO, we haven't fully recovered from the prospect drainage in the Tex trade.
We paid too much for him. I'm sorry to those who disagree, there are plenty who do. If you don't believe that we paid to much, compare that trade to the Johan Santana trade, or the Bedard trade. The Dan Haren trade?
Yeah, we gave up too much. Oh, and don't look now but Salty has been sporting a nice OPS+.
So where do we go from here?
I do think there are a few things that could be done to get a few more wins out of this squad.
The first issue I see is the Lineup. If you ask 10 different Braves fans what the lineup should be, you'll probably get 10 different answers, regardless if the fan is a Bill James junky or not. It's tough to build a lineup on stats when stats are changing after every game. Still, the Braves have a problem in this area. Our two best hitters (Chipper and McCann) rarely hit in the same inning. Frenchy is continually occupying the middle of the order (anybody else noticed he hit 3rd yesterday with Chipper out?) while being a GIDP machine. What a rally killer. Even with Tex heating up we seem to be stranding runners on base like crazy.
I used Baseball Musing's Lineup Simulator, plugged in the stats (I used Hudson's hitting stats for the pitcher spot and I used Infante for the LF spot), and it came up with this lineup:
Chipper
Tex
Infante
B-Mac
Yunel
Frenchy
KJ
Pitcher
Blanco
The simulator is several years old. There might be a better one out there now. But that's the lineup it came up with and its pushes out 5.649 runs/game. You may or may not agree with this. On first glance it looks as if Chipper won't get very many RBIs with the Pitcher and Blanco hitting in front of him. But hey, I can't argue with Chipper getting more at-bats.
The other thing that could use a bit of tweaking is bullpen management. It's tough to say what the future holds for Soriano. Sometimes he feels pain, sometimes he doesn't. I think when Mike Gonzalez comes back many of our problems will be solved. But I question the use of Manny Acosta. He should either be bumped to low leverage situations or demoted to the minors. I'd suspect a move will be made even after Mike Gonzalez returns. There is way too much unreliability out there. Bennett and the 2 LOOGYs are the only ones that don't drive me crazy right now.
Soo...
The longer we stay at .500 the tougher the road is for us in August and September. Right now we've played 65 games. Not exactly the halfway point but close enough. If the Phillies play .500 ball for the rest of the season they'll end up with 87 wins (I had the Phillies at 90 wins at the beginning of the season).
For the Braves to end the season with 87 wins they'll have to play win .567 of the time. Can we play .567 while they play .500?
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
The Problem
I heard someon mention at our softball game yesterday that they now no longer care if the Braves win, as long as Chipper gets 2 hits. That's a pretty good intro...
Look, I'm not the biggest fan of Pythagorean Records. Why? Well, the Braves' Pythagorean Record tells us we are one of the better teams in the league.
Um, sorry, but we aren't. I don't need a math formula to tell me otherwise.
Sure, it's nice to know where our record "should" be. But it all boils down to the fact that we aren't there.
We have a super utility and a backup infielder splitting time in LF. We have the league's worst right fielder. We only have 1, arguably 2-3 if you count the LOOGYs, reliever who can be labeled "reliable." We have only one starter who can go past the 6th consistently. We only have 2 starters that can go past the 5th consistently.
Sorry Mr. James, but the above is not a formula for success. Common sense beats the calculator here.
Is it that bad?
Probably not, but we'll see in September. I hear a lot of moaning and groaning about 1 run losses. There is some validity in those groans (we do need a better bullpen, for example) I like how Bobby worded it in an interview yesterday when he said "we're in every game". By that he means, we don't get blown out, yesterday's game excluded which is bound to happen every now and then. I do think it is a positive sign that we really don't get destroyed that much in our games this season.
The injuries are going to happen. In the 90s it seemed like we never lost a key player for an extended period of time (Justice, Galaragga, and Smoltz are the only ones I can think of in about 10 seconds of thinking.). Since we were a bit injury lucky in the 90s it seems to be catching up with us in the current decade. Is it random chance? Possibly. However Smoltz of this decade is 10 years older than Smoltz of last decade. Plus, Leo Mazzone has a better (I'd argue - The best) philosophy of pitcher maintenance which he documents in his book (oh and by the way, he's available to return to coaching). Still, injuries are going to happen.
Where do we go from here?
We probably need to think about restocking on prospects more than we have been. I'm not saying we should forfeit the season, but there are going to be a lot of changes in the next 2 offseasons with a lot of money to spend. Plus, IMHO, we haven't fully recovered from the prospect drainage in the Tex trade.
We paid too much for him. I'm sorry to those who disagree, there are plenty who do. If you don't believe that we paid to much, compare that trade to the Johan Santana trade, or the Bedard trade. The Dan Haren trade?
Yeah, we gave up too much. Oh, and don't look now but Salty has been sporting a nice OPS+.
So where do we go from here?
I do think there are a few things that could be done to get a few more wins out of this squad.
The first issue I see is the Lineup. If you ask 10 different Braves fans what the lineup should be, you'll probably get 10 different answers, regardless if the fan is a Bill James junky or not. It's tough to build a lineup on stats when stats are changing after every game. Still, the Braves have a problem in this area. Our two best hitters (Chipper and McCann) rarely hit in the same inning. Frenchy is continually occupying the middle of the order (anybody else noticed he hit 3rd yesterday with Chipper out?) while being a GIDP machine. What a rally killer. Even with Tex heating up we seem to be stranding runners on base like crazy.
I used Baseball Musing's Lineup Simulator, plugged in the stats (I used Hudson's hitting stats for the pitcher spot and I used Infante for the LF spot), and it came up with this lineup:
Chipper
Tex
Infante
B-Mac
Yunel
Frenchy
KJ
Pitcher
Blanco
The simulator is several years old. There might be a better one out there now. But that's the lineup it came up with and its pushes out 5.649 runs/game. You may or may not agree with this. On first glance it looks as if Chipper won't get very many RBIs with the Pitcher and Blanco hitting in front of him. But hey, I can't argue with Chipper getting more at-bats.
The other thing that could use a bit of tweaking is bullpen management. It's tough to say what the future holds for Soriano. Sometimes he feels pain, sometimes he doesn't. I think when Mike Gonzalez comes back many of our problems will be solved. But I question the use of Manny Acosta. He should either be bumped to low leverage situations or demoted to the minors. I'd suspect a move will be made even after Mike Gonzalez returns. There is way too much unreliability out there. Bennett and the 2 LOOGYs are the only ones that don't drive me crazy right now.
Soo...
The longer we stay at .500 the tougher the road is for us in August and September. Right now we've played 65 games. Not exactly the halfway point but close enough. If the Phillies play .500 ball for the rest of the season they'll end up with 87 wins (I had the Phillies at 90 wins at the beginning of the season).
For the Braves to end the season with 87 wins they'll have to play win .567 of the time. Can we play .567 while they play .500?
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Who goes down?
According to AJC, MLB.com, and a host of other news sites, the Atlanta Braves are to prepare for the return of Soriano, Smoltz, and Gonzalez.
This creates a logjam. We have 3 to send down. The way the bullpen has been throwing lately, it isn't going to be an easy decision. Let's speculate.
1. Jorge Campillo came up for Soriano.
2. Jo Jo Reyes came up for Smoltz (technically, it was Chuck James, but through a series of events it Reyes ended up being the replacement).
3. Gonzo wasn't on the 25 man roster at the start of the season.
It's interesting, because Jo Jo Reyes won't go back down when Smoltz returns. You don't send down a starter when a reliever returns (of course, when a Starter goes down and returns as a reliever, everything gets out of whack. With Smoltz and Soriano in the pen, we'll have a Closer being paid Starter money, and a setup being paid closer money. Perfect).
All we can do is speculate. Here are some things to consider:
1. We know one of our LOOGYs will go. There's no way we'll have Ring, Ohman, and Gonzo. It's a shame, because I like Ohman and Ring. Even if they aren't that bad at getting righties out, Bobby is too old school to go with three southpaws in the pen.
2. Even though Campillo was originally up to replace Soriano, I doubt Bobby sends him down. He's done a decent job. He was magnificent in his spot start, although I'm not a fan of putting him on the pedastal that many commentors on the blogs have been doing. (It was one start - 78 pitches, people). Let's determine his value after 3-4 of those. I'm not trying to downplay what he did though. It'd be foolish to ask for anything more than that from a spot starter in a situation like that. He threw 78 pitches and about 70 of them were beauties!
3. There's always the possibility that Bobby will take someone who is out of options (Chris Resop, for example) and do one of those not really hurt DL stints to keep him from having to go to waivers. He did this with Pena just over a week ago. The thing is though, if Resop were DFA'd I would be shocked if another team claimed him. I mean, if you spell his name backwards it's "Poser" which is what he is when he's throwing those 97 mph fastballs right at the barrel of the battter's bats. They don't stay on the barrell long though. Quite often the ball then goes to the outfield, if we're lucky.
4. Some have suggested that we send down one of our many backup infielders. It's not a bad suggestion, but I don't think it will happen. We won't go with 13 pitchers. We did this last year for a stretch and the lack of bench drove me crazy (and Bobby Cox, I'm sure). Just seems like a bad idea. Plus, I like our bench this year. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like this year we have a better group of reserves than we've had in quite awhile (ignoring the fact that none of them play SS adequately). I'm not necessarily a fan of have so many bench players that have the same role (backup infielders that don't play SS that have the same (in general) hitting style. Anyways...
OK, so I'm gonna take my shot at it. 3 pitchers are coming up. Three are going down. Who would I send down? Well, I'll answer the question...but just know it won't happen:
Stockman
Acosta
Resop
That's who I'd send down. I know, I know, I didn't cut any of the Loogy's. Again, this isn't what will happen. Bobby is too old school to go with three lefties in the pen. I like Ohman and Ring as the Loogy's and I'd use Mike Gonzalez to get the Lefties AND the Righties out. What, relievers can do that?
So that's who I'd send down. As for who will actually go down? My guess is:
Stockman
Ring
Acosta
Note: Buddy Carlyle made the decision pretty tough as well. Remember, he is also on the DL. If he was healthy, Bobby would probably cut Carlyle before Acosta. If it was me, As soon as he got healthy I'd just send him back down. Just thought I'd mention that he makes it kind of tough because you can't replace Carlyle's spot if he's DLed.
That's my thoughts. What about you? Who would you send down?
This creates a logjam. We have 3 to send down. The way the bullpen has been throwing lately, it isn't going to be an easy decision. Let's speculate.
1. Jorge Campillo came up for Soriano.
2. Jo Jo Reyes came up for Smoltz (technically, it was Chuck James, but through a series of events it Reyes ended up being the replacement).
3. Gonzo wasn't on the 25 man roster at the start of the season.
It's interesting, because Jo Jo Reyes won't go back down when Smoltz returns. You don't send down a starter when a reliever returns (of course, when a Starter goes down and returns as a reliever, everything gets out of whack. With Smoltz and Soriano in the pen, we'll have a Closer being paid Starter money, and a setup being paid closer money. Perfect).
All we can do is speculate. Here are some things to consider:
1. We know one of our LOOGYs will go. There's no way we'll have Ring, Ohman, and Gonzo. It's a shame, because I like Ohman and Ring. Even if they aren't that bad at getting righties out, Bobby is too old school to go with three southpaws in the pen.
2. Even though Campillo was originally up to replace Soriano, I doubt Bobby sends him down. He's done a decent job. He was magnificent in his spot start, although I'm not a fan of putting him on the pedastal that many commentors on the blogs have been doing. (It was one start - 78 pitches, people). Let's determine his value after 3-4 of those. I'm not trying to downplay what he did though. It'd be foolish to ask for anything more than that from a spot starter in a situation like that. He threw 78 pitches and about 70 of them were beauties!
3. There's always the possibility that Bobby will take someone who is out of options (Chris Resop, for example) and do one of those not really hurt DL stints to keep him from having to go to waivers. He did this with Pena just over a week ago. The thing is though, if Resop were DFA'd I would be shocked if another team claimed him. I mean, if you spell his name backwards it's "Poser" which is what he is when he's throwing those 97 mph fastballs right at the barrel of the battter's bats. They don't stay on the barrell long though. Quite often the ball then goes to the outfield, if we're lucky.
4. Some have suggested that we send down one of our many backup infielders. It's not a bad suggestion, but I don't think it will happen. We won't go with 13 pitchers. We did this last year for a stretch and the lack of bench drove me crazy (and Bobby Cox, I'm sure). Just seems like a bad idea. Plus, I like our bench this year. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like this year we have a better group of reserves than we've had in quite awhile (ignoring the fact that none of them play SS adequately). I'm not necessarily a fan of have so many bench players that have the same role (backup infielders that don't play SS that have the same (in general) hitting style. Anyways...
OK, so I'm gonna take my shot at it. 3 pitchers are coming up. Three are going down. Who would I send down? Well, I'll answer the question...but just know it won't happen:
Stockman
Acosta
Resop
That's who I'd send down. I know, I know, I didn't cut any of the Loogy's. Again, this isn't what will happen. Bobby is too old school to go with three lefties in the pen. I like Ohman and Ring as the Loogy's and I'd use Mike Gonzalez to get the Lefties AND the Righties out. What, relievers can do that?
So that's who I'd send down. As for who will actually go down? My guess is:
Stockman
Ring
Acosta
Note: Buddy Carlyle made the decision pretty tough as well. Remember, he is also on the DL. If he was healthy, Bobby would probably cut Carlyle before Acosta. If it was me, As soon as he got healthy I'd just send him back down. Just thought I'd mention that he makes it kind of tough because you can't replace Carlyle's spot if he's DLed.
That's my thoughts. What about you? Who would you send down?
Monday, May 5, 2008
Ryan Perrilloux might be on campus...
I have a bad taste in my mouth regarding Ryan Perrilloux. I watched him lead LSU past the Vols in the 4th quarter of the 2007 SEC Championship game, only to watch Ainge choke in response.
Now there is a possibility of watching him beat my alma mater, Harding University this fall.
Perilloux was recently kicked off of LSU's team after failing a drug test. Says he is considering Valdosta State.
If he finishes his semester at LSU, he will keep his eligibility for next season. Coincidently, Valdosta State plays Harding University at Bazemore-Hyder Stadium this October.
There is a possibility that, for the second time in a 1 year span, I will watch Ryan Perrilloux dismantle the defense of a team I favor.
I'll be sitting in the visitors section, probably one of 10 people.
Story Here.
Now there is a possibility of watching him beat my alma mater, Harding University this fall.
Perilloux was recently kicked off of LSU's team after failing a drug test. Says he is considering Valdosta State.
If he finishes his semester at LSU, he will keep his eligibility for next season. Coincidently, Valdosta State plays Harding University at Bazemore-Hyder Stadium this October.
There is a possibility that, for the second time in a 1 year span, I will watch Ryan Perrilloux dismantle the defense of a team I favor.
I'll be sitting in the visitors section, probably one of 10 people.
Story Here.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Stadium Rankings
This is kind of fun. SI.com has an interesting chart ranking the baseball parks using a number of different factors (affordability, food, parking, etc).
The Braves Stadium is #19 overall. We rank #11 in hospitality. Oh, and we didn't come in dead last in food rankings...so apparently some people actually like that Aramark stuff, or whatever it is.
The good news (I guess) is that there is only 1 NL East team (Phillies) ahead of us in the rankings.
It's pretty interesting. Click on the link above and play around with it.
The Braves Stadium is #19 overall. We rank #11 in hospitality. Oh, and we didn't come in dead last in food rankings...so apparently some people actually like that Aramark stuff, or whatever it is.
The good news (I guess) is that there is only 1 NL East team (Phillies) ahead of us in the rankings.
It's pretty interesting. Click on the link above and play around with it.
Looking at the splits...
Say what you want about the Braves. They have been quite frustrating to watch. After another one-run loss last night, things aren't looking too good.
Side note: Are the one run losses really that bad? Think about it...we've lost 15 games, 9 of them have been by one run. I'm not a stat junkie, but is it that horrible to discover that we when we lose, we only lose by a little bit? That might not be the most intelligent way to view it, but it sure seems like this one run stuff has been blown way out of proportion. Sure, it'd be great to have had a bullpen that could hold onto some leads, or an offense that wouldn't strand so many runners, but we seem to be hanging in there and not getting blown away. Isn't that hopeful? Again, perhaps 1 run games mean more than I think they do, but a loss is still a loss.
End Side Note.
I want to reveal some splits to unmask these Braves and see if we can discover what is going on. I'm going to post some of these splits, and I'm not going to comment on them. Just look at them. Some of them are fascinating.
Batting Splits:
Home: .308/.373/.471
Away: .252/.314/.410
High Leverage Situations: .231/.292/.313
Medium Leverage Situations: .257/.329/.415
Low Leverage Situations: .322/.379/.524
NL OPS Rankings:
23rd in OPS with Runners in Scoring Position
27th in OPS in "Close and Late Situations"
Yet...3rd in OPS overall
We probably need someone in the clubhouse who is experienced in performing the Heimlich maneuver because we have a lot of chokers (oops, I said I wouldn't comment, my bad).
Side note: Are the one run losses really that bad? Think about it...we've lost 15 games, 9 of them have been by one run. I'm not a stat junkie, but is it that horrible to discover that we when we lose, we only lose by a little bit? That might not be the most intelligent way to view it, but it sure seems like this one run stuff has been blown way out of proportion. Sure, it'd be great to have had a bullpen that could hold onto some leads, or an offense that wouldn't strand so many runners, but we seem to be hanging in there and not getting blown away. Isn't that hopeful? Again, perhaps 1 run games mean more than I think they do, but a loss is still a loss.
End Side Note.
I want to reveal some splits to unmask these Braves and see if we can discover what is going on. I'm going to post some of these splits, and I'm not going to comment on them. Just look at them. Some of them are fascinating.
Batting Splits:
Home: .308/.373/.471
Away: .252/.314/.410
High Leverage Situations: .231/.292/.313
Medium Leverage Situations: .257/.329/.415
Low Leverage Situations: .322/.379/.524
NL OPS Rankings:
23rd in OPS with Runners in Scoring Position
27th in OPS in "Close and Late Situations"
Yet...3rd in OPS overall
We probably need someone in the clubhouse who is experienced in performing the Heimlich maneuver because we have a lot of chokers (oops, I said I wouldn't comment, my bad).
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